Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Pick – Tennis Predictions & Odds 4/21/23

Paula Badosa and Aryna Sabalenka meet in the quarterfinal of the 2023 tennis Stuttgart Open. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.

Paula Badosa is coming off a straight set win over Cristina Bucsa that took 15 games to decide. In the victory, Badosa won 79 percent of her first serve points and 56 percent of her second serve points. Badosa won 67 percent of her total service points and converted on 5 of her 9 break points. Badosa got 47 percent of her first serves in play and saved 5 of her 6 break points. Each of Badosa’s last 6 wins have been decided in straight sets. Badosa has 9 career wins over top-10 players, and one of those victories came this year. Badosa has won 7 of her last 9 matches on clay court. 

Aryna Sabalenka is coming off a straight set win over Barbora Krejcikova that took 17 games to decide. In the victory, Sabalenka won 88 percent of her first serve points and 56 percent of her second serve points. Sabalenka won 76 percent of her total service points and converted on 3 of her 8 break points. Sabalenka hit 10 aces in her victory and didn’t face a single break point. With wins in 10 of her last 12 matches and most of those being decided in straight sets, this is easily some of the most consistent tennis we’ve seen from Sabalenka. Sabalenka has won 6 of her last 8 matches on clay court. 

Badosa has won 2 of the 3 meetings against Sabalenka, which were 2021 Cincinnati and 2021 Fort Worth. However, Sabalenka won the most recent match last year in Stuttgart.

Badosa has the h2h advantage, but it’s Sabalenka who is in better form, has the rest advantage and won the most recent match at this very tournament a year ago. While always talented, Sabalenka has had issues with unforced errors and keeping her head on straight. It appears she’s improved in those areas, and she’s playing some of the best tennis of her life at 24 years old.

Give me Sabalenka and the reasonable price to advance to the semis.