Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka
May 6, 2023 12:30 pm EDT
The Line: Aryna Sabalenka / Iga Swiatek
(Get latest betting odds)
Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka meet in the final of the 2023 tennis Madrid Open. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.
Iga Swiatek is coming off a straight set win over Veronika Kudermetova that took 14 games to decide. In the victory, Swiatek won 71 percent of her first serve points and 68 percent of her second serve points. Swiatek won 70 percent of her total service points and converted on 5 of her 12 break points. Swiatek got 52 percent of her first serves in play and saved all 5 break points. Swiatek has lost a combined 5 games in her last 4 sets. Swiatek looks to win her 14th career title overall and her sixth WTA 1000 title. Swiatek is 13-3 in final appearances for her career and 5-1 in WTA 1000 final appearances. Swiatek has won 9 straight matches on clay court.
Aryna Sabalenka is coming off a straight set win over Maria Sakkari that took 17 games to decide. In the victory, Sabalenka won 71 percent of her first serve points and 50 percent of her second serve points. Sabalenka won 64 percent of her total service points and converted on 4 of her 10 break points. Sabalenka got 69 percent of her first serves in play and hit 4 aces. Sabalenka has dropped just 1 set this tournament and has won 14 of her last 17 matches overall. Sabalenka looks to win her 13th career title overall and her fifth WTA 1000 title. Sabalenka is 12-10 in career final appearances and 4-1 in WTA 1000 final appearances. Sabalenka has won 8 of her last 9 matches on clay court.
Swiatek has won 6 of the 8 meetings against Sabalenka, including the most recent match this year in Stuttgart. Sabalenka’s last win over Swiatek came in 2022 Fort Worth. Swiatek is 3-0 over Sabalenka on clay court. Five of the 8 meetings were decided in straight sets.
I get why you’d want to take a shot with Sabalenka and the plus money, as she’s been one of the best players of the women’s side this year. However, Swiatek is just way too dominant to step in front of, and that includes a straight set victory just last week in the Germany final. Sabalenka put up a fight, as the match went nearly two hours, but it just wasn’t enough.
I like Swiatek to win her sixth WTA 1000 title.
