Aslan Karatsev vs Jan-Lennard Struff Pick – Tennis Predictions & Odds 5/5/23

Jan-Lennard Struff and Aslan Karatsev meet in the semifinal of the 2023 tennis Madrid Open. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.

Jan-Lennard Struff is coming off a 3 sets win over Stefanos Tsitsipas that took 34 games to decide. In the victory, Struff won 77 percent of his first serve points and 49 percent of his second serve points. Struff won 68 percent of his total service points and converted on 1 of his 1 break point. Struff got 68 percent of his first serves in play and hit 14 aces. Struff has won each of his last 5 matches that have gone the distance. Struff looks to make his second career final appearance. Struff has won 7 of his last 10 matches on clay court.

Aslan Karatsev is coming off a straight set win over Zhizhen Zhang that took 23 games to decide. In the victory, Karatsev won 82 percent of his first serve points and 68 percent of his second serve points. Karatsev won 77 percent of his total service points and converted on 1 of his 2 break points. Karatsev got 67 percent of his first serves in play and hit 6 aces. Including qualifying for some tournaments, Karatsev has won 10 of his last 11 matches overall. Karatsev looks to make his fifth career final appearance. Karatsev has won 9 of his last 10 matches on clay court. 

Karatsev won the only match against Struff, which was a Madrid qualifying match last week. The match was decided in straight sets and 18 games.

Karatsev is not only playing the better, more consistent tennis right now, but he also dominated Struff just last week in a qualifying match for this very tournament. Karatsev also has more big match experience and has prevailed in these spots on a more consistent basis.

I have a hard time turning down Karatsev and the even money in this spot.