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Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev Prediction – ATP Finals Picks 11-13-2023

Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev
2023-11-13 16:00:00 EDT
The Line: Daniil Medvedev -189 / Andrey Rublev +160
(Get latest betting odds)

Third seed Daniil Medvedev will face fellow Russian Andrey Rublev in the round-robin stage of the 2023 ATP Finals. The match will be played on Monday, November 13, 2023.

Medvedev vs Rublev Preview

Daniil Medvedev was eliminated in the group stage at last year’s ATP Finals, and it all stemmed from an opening round-robin defeat to Andrey Rublev. As fate would have it, he’ll get the chance to put it right on Monday when they clash again. Two of their 2023 meetings have each gone Medvedev’s way and in straight sets. The World No. 3 is coming off one of the best seasons of his career, winning the second-most titles on the ATP Tour and reaching a Grand Slam final for the fifth time in his career. Medvedev is 9-2 on indoor hard courts this year, winning his lone title on the surface in Rotterdam.

Andrey Rublev is making an appearance at the ATP Finals for the fourth year in a row. After two unsuccessful attempts to get out of his group, the third time was the charm for Rublev who advanced into the semifinal last year. And crucial to his qualification was a win over Daniil Medvedev in the opening match at the last edition. Rublev comes to Turin this time on a career-high ranking of World No. 5. He won two titles in 2023, both on clay, including a first Masters title in Monte Carlo. 

Medvedev vs Rublev Prediction

Daniil Medvedev leads their head-to-head 6-2. None of their eight meetings have come outside hard courts and that pattern will continue at the 2023 ATP Finals. The World No. 3 has won the most matches of any player this season which makes Rublev’s task a tad harder to emulate last year’s big result. But the fast courts in Turin don’t particularly appeal to Medvedev. In two years (while the event has been staged there), Medvedev has only won one match in straight sets. Remarkably, he has played five matches which have all required the drama of a tiebreak in the third set in that span (between 2021 and 2022). A good way to exploit the markets is backing the over 12.5 total games by Medvedev here (which means we’re not risking him outright to win this match) at -149 as this will likely end up being another slugfest.

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick: Daniil Medvedev over 12.5 total games

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Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

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