Tennis Picks

Daria Kasatkina vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova Pick – Tennis Predictions & Odds 4/28/23

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Daria Kasatkina
April 28, 2023 9:00 am EDT
The Line: Daria Kasatkina / Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
(Get latest betting odds)

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Daria Kasatkina meet in the second round of the 2023 tennis Madrid Open. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is coming off a 3 sets win over Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva that took 33 games to decide. In the victory, Pavlyuchenkova won 76 percent of her first serve points and 49 percent of her second serve points. Pavlyuchenkova won 64 percent of her total service points and converted on 4 of her 19 break points. Pavlyuchenkova got 59 percent of her first serves in play and saved 5 of her 7 break points. Pavlyuchenkova prevailed in an almost 3-hour match, so we’ll see what her conditioning is like for this one. Pavlyuchenkova has 36 career wins over top-10 players, but none of those wins have come since 2021. Pavlyuchenkova has split her last 8 matches on clay court.

Daria Kasatkina enters this tournament with 2 straight losses, which includes an early exit in Stuttgart. In her last effort, Kasatkina was broken 5 times and won just 41 percent of her service points. Obviously an area that needs to be cleaned up. Kasatkina has lost 6 of her last 10 matches overall, and she doesn’t have a ton of success in WTA 1000s over the last 4 years. In Madrid, Kasatkina has a career 50 percent winning percentage, with her lone deep run being a quarterfinal trip in 2018. It will be interesting to see if Kasatkina can get it together. Kasatkina has split her last 8 matches on clay court.

Kasatkina has won 3 of the 4 matches against Pavlyuchenkova, including the most recent match in 2021 Melbourne. Pavlyuchenkova’s lone win over Kasatkina was 2015 Moscow. This will be the first meeting on clay.

Kasatkina should be favored for obvious reasons as she’s the better player and has won the last 3 matches h2h. However, Kasatkina isn’t playing well at the moment, she has almost no success the last few years in WTA 1000s and this isn’t her favorite surface. Pavlyuchenkova may be poorly ranked, but she’s a veteran who has seen it all, beaten some of the game’s best and can pull off an upset if her opponent isn’t hitting her spots. 

Assuming we’re going to get a big plus money price, I’ll take a shot in the dark with Pavlyuchenkova.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA. Follow Randy Chambers on Twitter.

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