Grigor Dimitrov vs Nicolas Jarry Prediction – Tennis Picks 10-13-2023

18th seed Grigor Dimitrov will face big-hitting Chilean Nicolas Jarry in the quarterfinal of the 2023 Shanghai Masters. The match will be played on October 13, 2023.

Grigor Dimitrov scored the upset of the tournament by eliminating top seed Carlos Alcaraz in three pulsating sets. Dimitrov had never gone beyond the round of 16 at Masters level this season, but after dropping a tight first set which slipped through his grasp, he managed to regroup to defy the odds to win the next two. Dimitrov believed reading Alcaraz’s first serve in the middle of the second set proved critical, managing to put few more balls in play while hitting clearly off both wings. He’s been rewarded with a  place in the last eight of a Masters since Monte Carlo last year.

Standing in his way is Nicolas Jarry whose career-best season saw him earn his 11th win on hard courts, the most he’s managed at Tour level in a single calendar year. Jarry is also on the doorstep of a Top 20 breakthrough, and a win on Friday will guarantee him a Top 20 debut. The towering Chilean was far from his vintage best on his 28th birthday but still did enough to keep a rejuvenated Diego Schwartzman at bay, winning 6-3 in the third. He will contest his first Masters 1000 quarterfinal of his career.

Nicolas Jarry leads Grigor Dimitrov 2-0 in their head-to-head, with both meetings coming on clay. They contested the Geneva final earlier this season, with Jarry edging Dimitrob in a tight first set, before racing to victory in the second set. Although the conditions heavily favored the Chilean at altitude, he’s been hitting the ball with pinpoint accuracy and power in Shanghai. It would be cruel to pick against Dimitrov here, hot on the heels of his best win in a while, but the price on Jarry is hard to ignore. He starts at colossal +195 with some markets to win the match, and I think backing him to win a set at -167 is not the worst idea with the way he’s been playing this week.