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Hubert Hurkacz vs Ugo Humbert Prediction – Tennis Picks 10-28-2023

Hubert Hurkacz vs Ugo Humbert
2023-10-28 09:00:00 EDT
The Line: Hubert Hurkacz -182 / Ugo Humbert +145
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Fourth seed Hubert Hurkacz will square off against French lefty Ugo Humbert in the semifinal of the Swiss Indoors in Basel. The match will be played on Saturday, October 28, 2023.

Hubert Hurakcz kept his hopes of qualifying for the ATP Finals alive with a comeback win over Tallon Griekspoor in Friday’s quarterfinal. Hurkacz, one of the favorites to lift the Swiss Indoors in Basel this week, has survived the onslaught of high seeds to reach the last four, tallying an astonishing 46 winners (including 23 aces) to win 6-7, 6-4, 6-4. The Pole saved two crucial break points on his serve at 1-2 in the deciding set.

Ugo Humbert, meanwhile, is looking to close out the year on a high note after bettering each of his last two tournament achievements. A quarterfinalist in Beijing and Shanghai, the French southpaw has gone one round better, with his own three-set win over home wild card Dominic Stricker who accounted for one of the biggest shocks of the week when he eliminated Casper Ruud. But Stricker couldn’t keep up with Humbert’s sharpshooting from the baseline in the long haul. The World No. 28 won 6-4, 2-6, 6-2.

Hubert Hurkacz defeated Ugo Humbert in their only ATP meeting at the 2022 Halle Open. It was a tight straight sets win for the Pole at a time when Humbert was hardly playing his best tennis. The Frenchman has managed to come through his slump and has played some inspired tennis on hard courts this year, earning wins over Alex de Minaur, Andrey Rublev, and Stefanos Tsitsipas in recent weeks. I don’t think Humbert should be such a massive underdog here. He is a player with a penchant for these conditions. The most suitable avenue to exploit here is definitely the over 23.5 games. Hurkacz doesn’t drop his serve frequently and he racked up the ace count in that quarterfinal win. Humbert is a great server himself and with creative shotmaking abilities. It is a tight one in the ML, but it almost feels like we are guaranteed at least a couple of 7-5 or 7-6 sets.

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick: Over 23.5 games in the match

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Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

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