Jan-Lennard Struff vs Carlos Alcaraz Pick – Tennis Predictions & Odds 5/7/23

Carlos Alcaraz and Jan-Lennard Struff meet in the final of the 2023 tennis Madrid Open. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.

Carlos Alcaraz is coming off a straight set win over Borna Coric that took 19 games to decide. In the victory, Alcaraz won 71 percent of his first serve points and 65 percent of his second serve points. Alcaraz won 69 percent of his total service points and converted on 4 of his 6 break points. Alcaraz got 66 percent of his first serves in play and hit 4 aces. Alcaraz has now won 20 of his last 21 matches overall, making him the hottest player on the planet right now. Alcaraz looks to win his 10th career title and his fourth Masters 1000 title. Alcaraz is 9-3 in career final appearances overall and 3-0 in Masters 1000 finals. Alcaraz has won 10 straight matches on clay court.

Jan-Lennard Struff is coming off a 3 sets win over Aslan Karatsev that took 29 games to decide. In the victory, Struff won 74 percent of his first serve points and 54 percent of his second serve points. Struff won 66 percent of his total service points and converted on 3 of his 9 break points. Struff got 59 percent of his first serves in play and hit 15 aces. Struff has won 4 matches this tournament that have gone the distance, and he’s won 5 straight 3 setters overall. Struff looks to win his first career title, as he lost his only other final trip in the 2021 Bavarian Championships. Struff has 12 career wins over top-10 players, with 2 of those wins coming this year. Struff has won 6 straight matches on clay court. 

The previous two meetings were split. Struff won the 2021 French Open in straight sets, while Alcaraz won 2022 Wimbledon in 5 sets. 

Struff has the ability to win this match, as he’s given Alcaraz all he can handle twice, and that includes a win on clay. However, I’m not betting against Alcaraz regardless of the circumstances, as you’re talking about somebody who is 20-1 since Indian Wells. Alcaraz is the hottest player on the mens side right now.

Give me Alcaraz to win his fourth Masters 1000 title.