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Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction – ATP Finals Picks 11-18-2023

Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz
2023-11-18 16:00:00 EDT
The Line: Novak Djokovic -147 / Carlos Alcaraz +166
(Get latest betting odds)

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic will square off against World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinal of the 2023 ATP Finals in Turin. The match will be played on Saturday, November 18, 2023.

Novak Djokovic needed a helping hand to qualify for the semifinal of this year’s ATP Finals despite recording to two round-robin wins. The Serbian did his side of the job, which was to beat the alternate Hubert Hurkacz in three sets. Had Holger Rune defeated Jannik Sinner, then Djokovic would have exited the tournament. And the Italian completed an unblemished run in the group by beating the Dane and giving Djokovic life in this tournament. That means we’ll get the fifth episode of the blockbuster, that is Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz. Is there a better way to sign off the season for these two juggernauts who have played ping pong with the No. 1 ranking all season? Possibly not.

Carlos Alcaraz, for his part, started his ATP Finals campaign with defeat to Alexander Zverev. It marked the first time in over two years he had lost three times in a row on tour. But things fast improved after that, tallying wins over Russin duo Andrey Rublev and Daniil Medvedev, with the latter qualifying in second place behind the Spaniard. 

The head-to-head between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz is tied at 2-2. They have never played on an indoor hard court. Djokovic’s experience and geometric mastery of this surface could be key to another win. But this has been a very productive week for Alcaraz whose qualification to the semis on debut has lifted his spirits. He’s finally hitting the ball with purpose and moving a lot better than a couple of weeks ago in Paris. It will be interesting to see whether fatigue plays a factor with Djokovic having accumulated at least three more hours than Alcaraz in his group, winning each match in three sets. So you’d really want to hang your hat on Alcaraz bagging at least a set at -213. And it would be a wise move to take the Spaniard outright at +166 given how he’s performed this week.

Joe Kiemen's Free Pick: Carlos Alcaraz in three sets

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Joe Kiemen

Joe Kiemen has been writing about sports for over 5 years and focuses on using data analysis/modeling to find profitable betting opportunities.

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