Rafael Nadal vs Jordan Thompson 5/23/22 French Open Tennis Picks, Predictions, Odds

Jordan Thompson and Rafael Nadal meet in the first round of the 2022 tennis French Open.

Jordan Thompson will play his first main tour match since Estoril which was nearly a month ago. Thompson has spent all month in challenger play and has lost five of his last six matches overall. Thompson just lost a match to a player outside of the top-200 and won just 55 percent of his total service points while being broken seven times. Thompson doesn’t a have a lot of grand slam success, especially in the French Open, where he is 3-6 for his career. Thompson has lost in the first round of the French Open in four of his last five appearances. Thompson has one career win over a top-10 player, and that was a 2017 victory over Andy Murray. Thompson has lost eight of his last 10 matches on clay court.

Rafael Nadal has won three of his last five matches on clay court and has shown enough promise to make a deep run despite the lack of overall reps this year. Nadal hasn’t played in a couple of weeks since Rome, and he could improve his second serve, but his return is there, and he’s moving well for the most part despite the injury issues. Nadal hasn’t lost in the first round of a grand slam since the 2016 Australian Open. Nadal has also never lost in the first round of the French Open, making at least the semifinals in each of the last five years. Nadal has won seven of his last 10 matches on clay court.

These two played once, which was 2020 Paris, a match Nadal won in straight sets. The match was decided in 20 games.

There’s not much to really breakdown in this match, as Thompson has been on the struggle bus all year, he has little to no grand slam success to speak of, and now he goes up against the clay GOAT. Nadal isn’t a lock to win this tournament like he usually is, but he’s still the favorite, and it takes a brilliant performance from a top tier player to beat him on this surface regardless of form. There’s not much hope for the Aussie in this first round.

Give me Nadal in straight sets.