Sabalenka vs Gauff Prediction 5-3-25 Madrid Tennis Picks

Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff meet Saturday in the WTA Madrid Open Final. Here’s a Sabalenka vs Gauff Prediction. This article will include a Sabalenka vs Gauff Pick.

Aryna Sabalenka Betting Preview

Sabalenka has dropped one set to get to the final and is coming off a one-sided performance against Elina Svitolina in the semis. Sabalenka has won each of her last eight sets overall and has saved 18 of her last 24 break points. Sabalenka has been shaky with her second serve throughout the tournament, but it hasn’t cost her much. A second round match against Elise Mertens was the only time Sabalenka has been pushed, and that’s because she won 43 percent of her service points in the first set and was broken three times.

Sabalenka looks to win her third title of the year and her 20th title of her career. Sabalenka is 19-17 in career final appearances and is 2-6 in final trips on clay. Sabalenka has won Madrid twice in her career, but she was the runner-up last year after losing to Iga Swiatek. Sabalenka has lost three of her last four final trips, which includes a loss on clay last month in the Stuttgart Open. Sabalenka has 45 career wins over top-10 players, and five of those wins have come this year.

Coco Gauff Betting Preview

Gauff has also dropped just one set to get to the final, which was her first set of the tournament against Dayana Yastremska. Gauff is coming off a dominating win over Swiatek that took just 14 games to decide. Gauff was a +140 underdogs in the match, and she’s dropped a combined three games in her last three sets. Gauff has lost a three or fewer games in six of her last eight sets. After some frustrating results in past tournaments over the last two months, it’s fair to say Gauff has right the ship and is playing her best tennis of the year.

Gauff looks for her first title of the year and the 10th title of her career. Gauff hasn’t played in a final since November in the WTA Finals, but she’s 9-1 in career final appearances overall. Gauff’s only loss in a final came on clay in the 2022 French Open. Gauff is 2-0 in WTA 1000 tournament finals. Gauff has won each of her last seven final appearances. Gauff has 26 career wins over top-10 players, and three of those wins have come this year.

Sabalenka vs Gauff H2H

Gauff is 5-4 against Sabalenka, which includes a win in the most recent match last year in the WTA Finals. Sabalenka won the previous two matches in 2024 in Wuhan and the Australian Open. Gauff won the only match against Sabalenka in 2021 Rome. Five of the nine matches between Sabalenka and Gauff have gone three sets. The only other time these two met in a final was in the 2023 US Open, which Gauff won in three sets and 25 games.

Sabalenka vs Gauff Prediction

Sabalenka has earned the right to be favored because of what she’s done of these last couple of years. However, her second serve has been a problem, and she’s not going to beat Gauff if that continues. Sabalenka has also had trouble finishing tournaments lately, losing three of her last four finals. Gauff is playing her best tennis of the year, and she’s been focused in finals throughout her career, losing just once in 10 tries. Gauff gives Sabalenka trouble with her speed, court coverage and willingness to come to the net. It’s going to take Sabalenka to clean up her game tremendously if she’s going to win, as she won’t get away with her current play in this match.

Give me Gauff and the even money, as the American wins her first title of the year.