Sabalenka vs Pegula Prediction 3/29/25 Tennis Picks Today

Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula meet Saturday in the 2025 Tennis Miami Open Final. Here’s a Sabalenka vs Pegula Prediction. This article will include a Sabalenka vs Pegula Pick.

Aryna Sabalenka Betting Preview

Aryna Sabalenka has won all 10 sets in Miami to get to the final, and is fresh off a dominating win over Jasmine Paolini. Sabalenka has lost two or fewer games in six of her last nine sets. Each of Sabalenka’s last 12 wins have been decided in straight sets.

Sabalenka looks to win her second title of the year and her 19th title of her career. Sabalenka is 16-8 in final appearances on hard court and 7-4 in final appearances in a WTA 1000. Sabalenka has lost her last two final appearances (Australian Open and Indian Wells). Sabalenka has never won the Miami Open.

Jessica Pegula Betting Preview

Jessica Pegula ended the Cinderella run of Alexandra Eala, beating her in three sets and two and a half hours. Pegula has won three matches that have gone the distance in this tournament and has won four of her last five three set matches overall. Pegula is 2-2 in tiebreaks this tournament as well.

Pegula looks to win her second title of the year and her eighth title of her career. Pegula is 6-7 in final appearances on hard court and 3-2 in WTA 1000 final appearances. Pegula has lost three of her last four final appearances. Pegula has never won the Miami Open.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula H2H

Sabalenka has won six of the eight matches against Pegula, including the most recent match in last years US Open. Pegula hasn’t beat Sabalenka since 2023 Cancun. Pegula also won the first match against Sabalenka in 2020 Cincinnati. Each of the last seven matches have been decided in straight sets. Pegula’s two wins over Sabalenka came on hard court.

Sabalenka vs Pegula Prediction

You can talk yourself into Pegula and the big plus money, as she’s going to be the crowd favorite as the American. Sabalenka has also come up short in recent final trips, so she’s proven to be beatable lately. However, Pegula has played more than nine hours to get to this point and could’ve easily been bounced in previous matches.

Sabalenka hasn’t lost a set this tournament, and most of those sets weren’t competitive. Pegula has struggled with the power of Sabalenka in past matches, and she gets pushed around the court a lot. Sabalenka will control the majority of the points in this match and should win if she limits her unforced errors. Give me in Sabalenka in straight sets to shave the price.