Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Jan-Lennard Struff Pick – Tennis Predictions & Odds 5/4/23

Jan-Lennard Struff and Stefanos Tsitsipas meet in the quarterfinal of the 2023 tennis Madrid Open. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.

Jan-Lennard Struff is coming off a 3 sets win over Pedro Cachin that took 35 games to decide. In the victory, Struff won 77 percent of his first serve points and 56 percent of his second serve points. Struff won 70 percent of his total service points and converted on 4 of his 5 break points. Struff got 67 percent of his first serves in play and hit 8 aces. Struff has won 4 straight matches that have gone the distance. Struff looks to make his first career Masters 1000 semifinal, as he’s 0-3 in previous quarterfinal matches. Struff has 11 career wins over top-10 players. Struff has won 7 of his last 10 matches on hard court.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is coming off a straight set win over Bernabe Zapata Miralles that took 16 games to decide. In the victory, Tsitsipas won 67 percent of his first serve points and 53 percent of his second serve points. Tsitsipas won 63 percent of his total service points and converted on 7 of his 16 break points. Tsitsipas got 59 percent of his first serves in play and hit 16 winners. Five of Tsitsipas’s last 8 wins have been decided in straight sets. Tsitsipas looks to make his 14th career Masters 1000 semifinal and third in Madrid. Tsitsipas is 13-5 in career Masters 1000 quarterfinal matches. Tsitsipas has won 8 of his last 10 matches on hard court. 

Tsitsipas has won 4 of the 6 meetings against Struff, which includes a win in 2020 Vienna, the most recent match. Struff’s last win over Tsitsipas was 2019 Cincinnati. The 2 meetings on clay were split. 

Tsitsipas should win this match and is the better player, obviously, but Struff has been competitive in past meetings and seems to get up for these sorts of matches. Struff has the ability to pull the upset, but I like him to take at least a set, so that’s where I lean in the betting market.

Give me Struff +1.5 sets, as this should be at the very least a competitive 3 setter.