UFC on ABC 3: Miesha Tate vs Lauren Murphy Picks, Predictions, Odds

Lauren Murphy and Miesha Tate fight Saturday in UFC on ABC 3 at the UBS Arena. Murphy enters this fight with a 15-5 record and has won 53 percent of her fights by knockout. Tate enters this fight with a 19-8 record and has won 42 percent of her fights by decision.

Murphy has won 6 of her last 8 fights and is coming off a September loss to Valentina Shevchenko. Murphy is averaging 3.58 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Murphy is averaging 1.03 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 34 percent. Murphy is coming off a knockout loss at UFC 266 where she landed 19 total strikes and ate 132 total strikes. A complete one-sided fight, Murphy now hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the second time in her career. Murphy is now 7-5 under the UFC banner, and it will be interesting to see how she rebounds from her first career knockout. Murphy has become an effective striker with knockout pop and uses her knees and elbows extremely well. A brown belt in BJJ, Murphy is also an effective grappler with decent takedown defense, and she’s never been submitted in her career. At almost 39 years old, Murphy is running out of time to get another shot at a possible title. This will be Murphy’s second career fight in New York.

Tate has split her last 6 fights and is coming off a November loss to Ketlen Vieira. Tate is averaging 2.41 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Tate is averaging 1.99 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 31 percent. Tate is coming off a decision loss at UFC on ESPN+ 56 where she ate 156 total strikes and landed 145 total strikes. Tate has now fought just twice since 2016, and she’s lost 3 of her last 4 fights overall. Tate is approaching 36 years old and needs a win here to prove there’s still something left in the tank. Tate comes from a submission wrestling background and has a purple belt in BJJ. She’s most known for her heavy wrestling style and has 7 career submission victories. Tate will mix in strong overhands and hooks and has 4 career knockouts, but she’s most comfortable on the ground. Tate also has impressive cardio, and it’s helped her win 8 of her 11 career decisions. This will be Tate’s second career fight in New York.

I’m not running to the window to back either of these fighters, as they’re both aging and haven’t looked great in recent bouts. With that said, Murphy is the older fighter of the 2, she’s coming off her first career knockout and her striking can really be hit or miss. Tate is still in good physical shape, and she’s the more balanced fighter of the two with her wrestling. This is a spot where Tate can drag Murphy into deep waters and just grind out an ugly victory.

It likely won’t be pretty, but give me Tate to get the job done.