Michael Chiesa and Kevin Holland fight Saturday in UFC 291 at Delta Center. Chiesa enters this fight with a 16-6 record and has won 63 percent of his fights by submission. Holland enters this fight with a 24-9 record and has won 58 percent of his fights by knockout.

Chiesa Betting Preview

Chiesa has won split his last 8 fights and is coming off a November (2021) loss to Sean Brady. Chiesa is averaging 1.88 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 41 percent. Chiesa is averaging 3.39 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 54 percent. Chiesa is coming off a decision loss at UFC on ESPN+ 56 where he landed 71 total strikes and produced 1 takedown. Chiesa is still looking for his first win since UFC on ESPN 20, and he’s fighting for the first time in a year and a half. Chiesa has never lost 3 straight fights in his career. Chiesa is a brown belt in BJJ and has a reputation of being a good scrambler and having a quality ground game. Chiesa has 11 career submission victories and has never won a fight by knockout. Chiesa is going to live and die on the ground, and 8 of his wins have come by rear-naked choke. This will be Chiesa’s first career fight in Utah.

Holland Betting Preview

Holland has won 3 of his last 5 fights and is coming off an April win over Santiago Ponzinibbio. Holland is averaging 4.12 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Holland is averaging 0.84 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 41 percent. Holland is coming off a knockout win at UFC 287 where he landed 67 total strikes. It was Holland’s 14th career knockout, and each of his last 5 wins overall have been finishes. Holland is fighting for the fifth time since June of last year, making him one of the busier fighters on the UFC roster. Holland is a lengthy, athletic fighter with an 81-inch reach and impressive stand-up ability. He’s light on his feet, constantly moving and not giving his opponent an easy target. Holland has a boxing and kickboxing background, quick hands and good footwork. A black belt in Kung Fu and BJJ, Holland closes the distance well, and he’s gotten a lot more comfortable on the canvas over the years. Because of his length, Holland can really make life difficult for his opponent once on the ground, and he has 6 career submission victories. Five of Holland’s 9 career losses have come by decision. This will be Holland’s first career fight in Utah.

H2H History 

There’s no fight history between these 2 fighters.

Randy’s Free Pick

Chiesa will have his chances in this bout if he can get it on the canvas. The problem is Chiesa hasn’t fought in a year and a half, and he’s going up against a ball of energy and a powerful striker. Holland has stayed busy, he’s in decent form, confident, and he has a 6-inch reach advantage in this bout. Chiesa is going to live dangerous with any potential takedown attempts. Holland is the safer bet here, and you can argue he should be a slightly bigger favorite.

I like Holland to get another victory in 2023.