Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 231 at the Ginásio do Ibirapuera. Almeida enters this fight with a 19-2 record and has won 63 percent of his fights by submission. Lewis enters this fight with a 27-11 record and has won 81 percent of his fights by knockout.

Jailton Almeida Betting Preview

Almeida has won 14 straight fights and is coming off a May win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Almeida is averaging 3.81 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 64 percent. Almeida is averaging 6.40 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 68 percent. Almeida is coming off a submission win at UFC on ABC 4 that earned performance of the night. Almeida is now 6-0 under the UFC banner, and all of those wins were finishes. Almeida is 32 years old with a black belt in BJJ and he has yet to win a decision. Almeida has seen a fight go to the judges just once, and that was in 2018. Almeida is a takedown machine who knows how to finish fights once he gets it where he wants. Almeida also has great ground and pound that’s helped him produce 7 career knockouts. This will be Almeida’s 17th career fight in Brazil, his birth country. 

Derrick Lewis Betting Preview

Lewis has split his last 8 fights and is coming off a July win over Marcos Rogério de Lima. Lewis is averaging 2.60 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Lewis is averaging 0.59 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 28 percent. Lewis is coming off a knockout win at UFC 291 where he landed 20 total strikes and ate 2 strikes. The victory snapped a 3-fight losing streak and earned performance of the night honors. At now 38 years old, there are no surprises with Lewis, as he’s a powerful striker who has produced knockouts in 22 of his 27 career wins. With a boxing background and heavy hands, Lewis looks to land that one shot that turns a fight. While he’s improved his takedown ability over the years and has a purple belt in BJJ, Lewis is stand and bang to its core and is letting his hands go. However, Lewis has trimmed down recently and his cardio has improved as well. Lewis holds the UFC record with 14 career knockouts. This will be Lewis’ first career fight in Brazil.

H2H History 

There’s no fight history between these 2 fighters.

Randy’s Free Pick

Almeida should be the obvious favorite, as he’s been completely dominant over the years, and his takedown and finish ability gives him a massive edge over a guy who wants to stand and bang. It’s also a home fight for Almeida, while Lewis has never made the trip to Brazil. The line is what it is for a reason. However, there’s just something about getting knockout artists and big plus money. They don’t have to be perfect or even win a round. They just need to land one shot. Lewis is as good as it gets in terms of knockout artists. Also, as previously mentioned, Lewis has gotten in better shape recently, so his conditioning has improved, and he should survive the canvas better as well.

I’ll take a shot with Lewis and a chance to make four times my money.