Aces vs Mercury
October 5, 2025 3:00 pm EDT
The Line: Mercury +3
(Get latest betting odds)
The Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces meet Sunday in WNBA Finals Game 2 at the Michelob ULTRA Arena. Here’s a Aces vs Mercury Prediction. This article will include a Aces vs Mercury Pick.
Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview
The Phoenix Mercury need a win to even up the series at 2-2. The Mercury have won 15 of their last 25 games.
The Phoenix Mercury are averaging 81 points on 41.8 percent shooting and allowing 77.5 points on 40.9 percent shooting. Alyssa Thomas is averaging 18.1 points and 8.6 rebounds, while Satou Sabally is averaging 18 points and 7 rebounds. Kahleah Copper is the third double-digit scorer and Sami Whitcomb is grabbing 2.5 rebounds. The Phoenix Mercury are shooting 32.7 percent from beyond the arc and 80.8 percent from the free throw line. The Phoenix Mercury are allowing 28.3 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 37.6 rebounds per game.
Las Vegas Aces Betting Preview
The Las Vegas Aces look to take a commanding 2-0 series lead. The Aces have won 22 of their last 24 games.
The Las Vegas Aces are averaging 87.2 points on 48.2 percent shooting and allowing 82.1 points on 44 percent shooting. A’ja Wilson is averaging 25.4 points and 9.2 rebounds, while Jackie Young is averaging 19.3 points and 4.4 rebounds. Chelsea Gray is the third double-digit scorer and Dana Evans is dishing 3 assists. The Las Vegas Aces are shooting 38.3 percent from beyond the arc and 77.6 percent from the free throw line. The Las Vegas Aces are allowing 37.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 28.9 rebounds per game.
Phoenix Mercury @ Las Vegas Aces Betting Trends: October 5, 2025
Why the Las Vegas Aces will win
- The Aces have won each of their last eight home games against Western Conference opponents.
- The Mercury have lost 12 of their last 14 games against Aces teams that held a winning record.
- The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six WNBA Finals games.
- The Aces have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 games against Western Conference opponents.
Why the Phoenix Mercury will win
- The road team has won six of the last eight games between the Aces and Mercury.
- The Aces have lost three of their last four day games at Michelob Ultra Arena following a home win.
- The Aces have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five day games at Michelob Ultra Arena following a home win.
- The Mercury have covered the spread in four of their last five road games against the Aces following a road loss.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Aces’ last six day games against Western Conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Mercury’s last four games have gone OVER the total points line.
Las Vegas Aces Player Facts
- A’ja Wilson ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (23.4) this season.
- Jackie Young has made 3+ free throws in four consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.
Phoenix Mercury Player Facts
- Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
- Kahleah Copper ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for three-pointers made per game (2.0) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for opponent blocks per game this season (2.6).
- The Las Vegas Aces rank 12th for opponent free throw percentage this season (81.5%).
- The Phoenix Mercury have recorded the longest road winning streak in the WNBA this season (2 games).
- The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for bench points per game (25.5) this season.
Aces vs Mercury Injury Report
The Aces don’t have any players listed on their injury report.
The Mercury don’t have any players listed on their injury report.
Aces vs Mercury Prediction
The Aces are going to get the benefit of the doubt at home, and it’s hard to bet against them when they’ve won 22 of their last 24 games. However, I’ve been on the Mercury for a long time, and I’m not turning back now. The Mercury were in control of game 1 and probably should’ve won it.
Also, the Mercury have lost game 1 in each of their last 2 playoff series and went on to not lose a game in the rest of the series. The underdog has covered 7 of the last 10 games between the Aces and Mercury. I still believe the Mercury are the better team and will win this series. Give me the free bucket.
