Aces vs Mercury Prediction 7-11-26 WNBA Picks
Aces vs Mercury
July 11, 2026 6:00 pm EDT
The Line: Aces -9.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces meet Saturday in WNBA action at the Michelob ULTRA Arena. Here’s an Aces vs Mercury Prediction. This article will include an Aces vs Mercury Pick.
Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview
The Phoenix Mercury look for a win after winning 4 of their last 7 games. The Mercury have lost 18 of their last 26 regular-season games.
The Phoenix Mercury are averaging 83.7 points on 43.7 percent shooting and allowing 85.7 points on 46 percent shooting. Kahleah Copper is averaging 20.8 points and 3.9 rebounds, while Alyssa Thomas is averaging 14.6 points and 8.2 assists. Jovana Nogic is the third double-digit scorer, and Monique Akoa Makani is grabbing 2.1 rebounds. The Phoenix Mercury are shooting 33.1 percent from beyond the arc and 78.9 percent from the free-throw line. The Phoenix Mercury are allowing 37.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 32 rebounds per game.
Las Vegas Aces Betting Preview
The Las Vegas Aces look for a win after winning 16 of their last 22 games. The Aces have won 6 of their last 8 home games.
The Las Vegas Aces are averaging 89.9 points on 48.7 percent shooting and allowing 86.1 points on 43.8 percent shooting. A’ja Wilson is averaging 26.1 points and 9.4 rebounds, while Jackie Young is averaging 16.5 points and 4.5 rebounds. Chelsea Gray is the third double-digit scorer, and NaLyssa Smith is dishing out 0.9 assists. The Las Vegas Aces are shooting 35.5 percent from beyond the arc and 77.3 percent from the free-throw line. The Las Vegas Aces are allowing 35.1 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 34.6 rebounds per game.
Why the Las Vegas Aces will win
- The Aces have won each of their last eight games against Mercury teams that held a losing record.
- The Mercury have lost each of their last eight Saturday games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
- The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight Saturday games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
- The Aces have covered the spread in five of their last six day games against teams that held a losing record.
Why the Phoenix Mercury will win
- The road team has won four of the Mercury’s last five games.
- The Aces have lost four of their last five games on the first leg of a back-to-back.
- The road team has covered the spread in each of the last four games between the Aces and Mercury.
- The Aces have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games at Michelob Ultra Arena against teams that held a losing record.
Total Points Facts
- Six of the Mercury’s last seven day games against Western Conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Four of the Aces’ last five games on the first leg of a back-to-back have gone UNDER the total points line.
Las Vegas Aces Player Facts
- NaLyssa Smith ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FG% (65.2%) this season.
- Jackie Young ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for FT% (94.0%) this season.
Phoenix Mercury Player Facts
- DeWanna Bonner ranks last amongst 46 qualified players for three-point field-goal percentage (25.0%) this season.
- Valerianne Ayayi is one of only 10 players to have scored 20+ points off the bench in a game this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Las Vegas Aces rank 14th for opponent turnovers per game this season (12.5).
- The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for field goal percentage this season (48.7%).
- The Phoenix Mercury rank 13th for offensive rebounds per game this season (7.7).
- The Phoenix Mercury rank 2nd for opponent free throws made per game this season (14.0).
Aces vs Mercury Injury Report
Dana Evans is questionable for the Aces due to a leg injury. Janiah Barker is out with a leg injury.
The Mercury will be without Natasha Mack due to a foot injury. Sami Whitcomb is questionable with a knee issue.
Aces vs Mercury Prediction
The Mercury has been more competitive over the last couple of weeks and has even won some of their recent games, but the consistency still isn’t there. The Mercury still take plays off defensively, still struggle with turnovers, and they’ve lost 7 times on the road. The Aces are healthier than they’ve been in recent games, and they’re probably still the team to beat at full strength. Also, the Aces have won 8 of the last 9 games against the Mercury, and they’ve covered 7 of those games. Think number for what’s supposed to be a rivalry between two teams with quality players. The Mercury just hasn’t measured up this season. Give me the Aces by double digits at home.