Dream vs Mercury
August 5, 2026 7:00 pm EDT
The Line: Dream -4.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Phoenix Mercury and Atlanta Dream meet Wednesday in WNBA action at the Gateway Center. Here’s a Dream vs Mercury Prediction. This article will include a Dream vs Mercury Pick.
Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview
The Phoenix Mercury look for a win after winning 4 of their last 5 games. The Mercury have lost 22 of their last 34 regular-season games.
The Phoenix Mercury are averaging 84.3 points on 44.5 percent shooting and allowing 87.3 points on 46.3 percent shooting. Kahleah Copper is averaging 21.2 points and 3.7 rebounds, while Kelsey Plum is averaging 20 points and 4 assists. Alyssa Thomas is the third double-digit scorer, and Jovana Nogic is grabbing 1.1 rebounds. The Phoenix Mercury are shooting 32.5 percent from beyond the arc and 78.6 percent from the free-throw line. The Phoenix Mercury are allowing 36.8 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 31.5 rebounds per game.
Atlanta Dream Betting Preview
The Atlanta Dream look for a win after winning 5 of their last 6 games. The Dream have won 6 of their last 8 home games.
The Atlanta Dream are averaging 89.3 points on 43.7 percent shooting and allowing 86.1 points on 48.8 percent shooting. Allisha Gray is averaging 18.8 points and 3 rebounds, while Rhyne Howard is averaging 17 points and 3.4 assists. Angel Reese is the third double-digit scorer, and Jordin Canada is grabbing 3.7 rebounds. The Atlanta Dream are shooting 30.4 percent from beyond the arc and 77.5 percent from the free-throw line. The Atlanta Dream are allowing 36.8 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 34.6 rebounds per game.
Why the Atlanta Dream will win
- The Dream have won each of their last seven games at Gateway Center Arena following a home loss.
- The Mercury have lost each of their last four games against Dream teams that held a winning record.
- The Dream have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against the Mercury at Gateway Center Arena.
- The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine night games against Eastern Conference opponents.
Why the Phoenix Mercury will win
- The Mercury have won three of their last four games as underdogs following a road win.
- The Dream have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 10 games as favorites against Western Conference opponents.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in 13 of the Dream’s last 14 games.
Total Points Facts
- Eight of the Dream’s last nine games at Gateway Center Arena have gone OVER the total points line.
- Four of the Mercury’s last five games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Atlanta Dream Player Facts
- Allisha Gray ranks 1st in the league for fast break points (97) this season.
- Rhyne Howard is the only qualified player in the league to be leading their team in blocks per game (0.9) and three-point shooting percentage (35.4%) this season.
Phoenix Mercury Player Facts
- Kahleah Copper has led her team in scoring 21 times this season – equal-most of any player in the league.
- Kelsey Plum is one of only three qualified players to have made a three in every game this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Atlanta Dream rank 1st for opponent offensive rebounds per game this season (6.1).
- The Atlanta Dream rank 1st for steals per game this season (9.5).
- The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for opponent free throw attempts per game this season (18.5).
- The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for field goal attempts per game this season (65.2).
Dream vs Mercury Injury Report
Te-Hina Paopao is out for the Dream with a leg injury.
The Mercury don’t have any players listed on their injury report.
Dream vs Mercury Prediction
The Dream are going to get the benefit of the doubt at home, but this is a thick line for a team that’s 1-10 ATS in their last 10 games. I’m not ready to say the Mercury have figured things out, but they’ve won 4 of their last 5 games and have scary potential offensively with the addition of Plum, who looked good in her debut with Phoenix. I just can’t lay points with the Dream given the way they’re not cashing tickets. The Mercury are desperate to make a last-second playoff push. Should be a tight game. I want the points in my back pocket.
