Liberty vs Mercury Prediction 9-17-25 WNBA Picks

The Phoenix Mercury and New York Liberty meet Wednesday in WNBA First Round Game 2 at the Barclays Center. Here’s a Liberty vs Mercury Prediction. This article will include a Liberty vs Mercury Pick.

Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview

The Phoenix Mercury need a win to force a game 3 on Friday. The Mercury have won 11 of their last 18 games.

The Phoenix Mercury are averaging 69 points on 32.5 percent shooting and allowing 76 points on 41.7 percent shooting. Kahleah Copper is averaging 15 points and 2 rebounds, while Alyssa Thomas is averaging 14 points and 9 rebounds. DeWanna Bonner is the third double-digit scorer and Satou Sabally is grabbing 8 rebounds. The Phoenix Mercury are shooting 23.1 percent from beyond the arc and 81.3 percent from the free throw line. The Phoenix Mercury are allowing 30.3 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 31 rebounds per game.

New York Liberty Betting Preview

The New York Liberty look to complete a sweep and make the second round for a third straight season. The Liberty have won 4 straight games.

The New York Liberty are averaging 76 points on 41.7 percent shooting and allowing 69 points on 32.5 percent shooting. Natasha Cloud is averaging 23 points and 5 assists, while Breanna Stewart is averaging 18 points and 6 rebounds. Sabrina Ionescu is the third double-digit scorer, and Leonie Fiebich is dishing 1 assist. The New York Liberty are shooting 30.3 percent from beyond the arc and 66.7 percent from the free throw line. The New York Liberty are allowing 23.1 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 48 rebounds per game.

Phoenix Mercury @ New York Liberty Betting Trends: September 17, 2025

Why the New York Liberty will win

• The Mercury have lost 16 of their last 17 road games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The favorites have won each of the Mercury’s last eight playoff games.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games.
• The favorites have covered the spread in each of the last four games between the Liberty and Mercury.

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The Mercury have won each of their last six night games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Liberty have lost four of their last five games as home favorites following an overtime win.
• The Liberty have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight home games following an overtime win.
• The Mercury have covered the spread in each of their last four night games following an overtime loss.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Liberty’s last seven games as favorites following a road win have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Mercury’s last seven night games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

New York Liberty Player Facts

• Sabrina Ionescu ranks 1st amongst qualified players in the Eastern Conference for assists per game (5.7) this season.
• Leonie Fiebich ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for 3P% (42.5%) this season.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
• Kahleah Copper ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for three-pointers made per game (2.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The New York Liberty rank 1st for opponent three-point percentage this season (31.5%).
• The New York Liberty rank 1st for free throw percentage this season (83.7%).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for bench points per game (25.5) this season.
• Phoenix Mercury scored 36 unanswered points against Indiana Fever on August 7 – team’s equal-biggest scoring run of the season.

Liberty vs Mercury Injury Report

The Mercury don’t have any players listed on their injury report.

Breanna Stewart is questionable for the Liberty due to a knee injury.

Liberty vs Mercury Prediction

The Liberty are going to be favored at home where they’re 17-5 SU on the season, but it’s hard to get fully behind them without knowing the status of Stewart. This is a spot where you have to check the injury report before betting. Either way, I’ve been high on the Mercury for much of the season and believe this is a title contender if playing to its full potential.

The Mercury had their chances to win game 1, and that was with Satou Sabally not being able to hit the broadside of a barn. Kahleah Copper and Monique Akoa Makani didn’t shoot well either. I don’t expect that to happen again. I said I’ll be on the Mercury in these playoffs whenever I can get them as an underdog. Give me the bucket.