Mercury vs Aces Prediction 10-10-25 WNBA Picks

The Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury meet Friday in WNBA Finals Game 4 at the Mortgage Matchup Center. Here’s a Mercury vs Aces Prediction. This article will include a Mercury vs Aces Pick.

Las Vegas Aces Betting Preview

The Las Vegas Aces look to win their third WNBA title in franchise history. The Aces have won 24 of their last 26 games.

The Las Vegas Aces are averaging 83.6 points on 43.9 percent shooting and allowing 82.3 points on 43.7 percent shooting. A’ja Wilson is averaging 26.5 points and 10.1 rebounds, while Jackie Young is averaging 20.6 points and 4.6 rebounds. Chelsea Gray is the third double-digit scorer and Jewell Loyd is dishing 0.8 assists. The Las Vegas Aces are shooting 35.1 percent from beyond the arc and 82.4 percent from the free throw line. The Las Vegas Aces are allowing 34.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 33.5 rebounds per game.

Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview

The Phoenix Mercury need a win to force a game 5 on Sunday. The Mercury have won 15 of their last 27 games.

The Phoenix Mercury are averaging 82.8 points on 43.3 percent shooting and allowing 80.1 points on 41.9 percent shooting. Satou Sabally is averaging 19 points and 7 rebounds, while Alyssa Thomas is averaging 16.9 points and 8.7 rebounds. Kahleah Copper is the third double-digit scorer and DeWanna Bonner is grabbing 6.5 rebounds. The Phoenix Mercury are shooting 34 percent from beyond the arc and 78.4 percent from the free throw line. The Phoenix Mercury are allowing 29.6 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 34.7 rebounds per game.

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Aces’ last three games at Mortgage Matchup Center.
• The Aces have lost three of their last four playoff games as road favorites.
• The Aces have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 14 games as road favorites following a road win.
• The Mercury have covered the spread in each of their last four day games following a home loss.

Why the Las Vegas Aces will win

• The Aces have won each of their last nine road games against the Mercury.
• The Mercury have lost each of their last six home games against Aces teams that held a winning record.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six home games against Aces teams that held a winning record.
• The Aces have covered the spread in eight of their last nine road games against the Mercury.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Aces’ last eight day games against Western Conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Mercury’s last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of the last five WNBA Finals games have gone OVER the total points line.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
• Natasha Mack ranks 1st amongst qualified players for blocks per 36 minutes (3.0) this season.

Las Vegas Aces Player Facts

• A’ja Wilson ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (23.4) this season.
• Jewell Loyd has hit 3+ three-pointers in two consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phoenix Mercury have allowed fewer than 100 points points in each of their last 28 games – team’s longest streak since 2021.
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for bench points per game (25.5) this season.
• The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for opponent blocks per game this season (2.6).
• The Las Vegas Aces rank 12th for opponent free throw percentage this season (81.5%).

Mercury vs Aces Injury Report

The Aces don’t have any players listed on their injury report.

The Mercury will be without Satou Sabally due to a concussion.

Mercury vs Aces Prediction

I’m honestly surprised this line is this soft. Yes, the Mercury still have players capable of rising to the occasion in Copper and AT, but that hasn’t happened yet in this series. Sabally has been the best player for the Mercury in the playoffs, and not having her is a massive blow. Bonner hasn’t been able to get her shot falling all playoffs, so I’m not sure where the Mercury turn for that third wheel.

The Aces are a championship roster with players who have been there done that, and they have to smell blood in the water. If the Mercury are going to continue picking and choosing when to play defense, this contest will get away from them quickly. We’re only laying a bucket with a team that’s won 24 of their last 26 games. Give me the Aces.