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Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks - 2/5/14

Milwaukee Bucks (9-39) at Denver Nuggets (23-23)

NBA Basketball: Wednesday, February 5, 2014 at 9:00 pm (Pepsi Center)

The Line: Denver Nuggets -12.5 -- Over/Under: 208 See the Latest Odds

TV:

The Denver Nuggets host the Milwaukee Bucks from the Mile High City in prime time NBA action.

Head to head, the Bucks are 7-18-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings and 2-10-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Denver while the home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Nuggets are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 vs. NBA Central, but just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400 and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Bucks on the other hand are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games, 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games following a S.U. win and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 vs. Western Conference.

Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks - 2/5/14

Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Even though the Milwaukee Bucks have played better in their last two outings, I still can’t bring myself to take them in this one, and can you blame me? The Bucks managed to keep things relatively close in their recent game in Memphis and then they backed that up with a home win over the New York Knicks on Monday night, but they are still just 17-31 against the spread on the season, which is just about the worst mark in the NBA, which seems fair given they have the worst overall record in the league. While you would assume the Denver Nuggets are the automatic play here, they come into tonight’s contest having dropped five of their past eight games, which includes home losses to Charlotte and Cleveland. Given this, I’m going to take a total instead.

208 is pretty high for a total when one the teams happens to be the lowly Milwaukee Bucks, but they have actually gone over the total in their last four games, granted, none were even close to tonight’s over/under line. While neither of their last two games have gone over 200 total points, their previous two before that both went over 215 against Orlando and Phoenix. As far as the Nuggets are concerned, nearly all of their games so far in 2014 have been high scoring and as a result the over is 7-3 in their last 10 at the Pepsi Center and 12-4 in their last 16 overall.

I don’t trust Milwaukee whatsoever, but the fact remains that nearly every game that Denver is involved with ends up being a shoot out, regardless of the opponent. The Bucks are a bad offensive team, there’s no two ways about it, but they can put up triple figures from time to time and you would expect that tonight would be as good any night to do so....

Dan’s Pick: Over 208

Follow me on Twitter @Dan_SCP

 

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