UFC Fight Night 205: Claudio Puelles vs Clay Guida Picks, Predictions, Odds

Clay Guida and Claudio Puelles fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 205 at the UFC Apex. Guida enters this fight with a 37-21 record and has won 41 percent of his fights by decision. Puelles enters this fight with a 11-2 record and has won 55 percent of his fights by submission.

Guida has split his last 10 fights and is coming off a December win over Leonardo Santos. Guida is averaging 2.53 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 34 percent. Guida is averaging 3.26 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Guida is coming off a submission win at UFC on ESPN 31 where he landed 50 total strikes and produced two takedowns. The bout earned performance of the night honors. Guida looks for back-to-back wins for the first time since 2017. Guida has been a mixed bag the last several years, and you have to question if age plays a part, as he’s 40 years old and made his pro debut back in 2003. Guida is not the most accurate striker in the world and may be a bit too wild for his own good, but he’s one of the more entertaining fighters in MMA history. Guida is a ball of energy and as tough as they come, and his work rate is up there with the best in the sport. Guida always comes forward, goes for takedowns aggressively, throws relentless strikes and has been in many wars over the years. Guida has also been knocked out just twice in 21 career losses, which is a sign of his toughness given his fighting style. This will be Guida’s 12th career fight in Nevada.

Puelles has won each of his last four fights and is coming off a December win over Chris Gruetzemacher. Puelles is averaging 2.07 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Puelles is averaging 2.87 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Puelles is coming off a submission win at UFC on ESPN 31 where he landed 72 total strikes and produced one takedown. Puelles is now 4-1 under the UFC banner, and this will be his third fight in less than a year. Puelles is just now starting to become a consistent fighter, as he took a light of time off since UFC Fight Night 98 and wasn’t really fighting notable names when he actually did step in the octagon. At 25 years old, there’s still a window for Puelles to start climbing up the rankings. Puelles is at his best when he’s grappling, as nine of his 11 wins have come by submission or decision, and he’s a pure belt in Luta Livre. Puelles is still a work in progress with his stand-up striking, and he doesn’t land many shots on the feet. A deep Muay Thai background as well, Puelles is at his best when he gets his hands on his opponent. This will be Puelles’ third career fight in Nevada.

Puelles would have the edge if he can get this fight on the canvas, and he’s the younger, bigger fighter of the two. There’s a path to victory for Puelles. However, Guida is the grizzly veteran who has a clear edge on the feet, and you get the feeling he can control the pace and not walk into any traps. Puelles is still fairly young and doesn’t have a lot of experience against quality fighters. This is a fight where Guida’s experience should pay off.

Give me Guida for a big victory.