Billy Quarantillo vs Edson Barboza Pick – UFC on ESPN 44 Predictions & Odds 4/15/23

Edson Barboza and Billy Quarantillo fight Saturday in UFC on ESPN 44 at the T-Mobile Center. Barboza enters this fight with a 22-11 record and has won 59 percent of his fights by knockout. Quarantillo enters this fight with a 17-4 record and has won 47 percent of his fights by knockout. 

Barboza has lost 7 of his last 10 fights and is coming off a March (2022) loss to Bryce Mitchell. Barboza is averaging 3.96 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Barboza is averaging 0.38 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Barboza is coming off a decision loss at UFC 272 where he landed 23 total strikes and ate 182 total strikes. Barboza will fight for the first time in over a year after dealing with a knee injury, and he looks for his first win since UFC 262. Barboza is known for his leg work and is one of the best in the sport thanks to a deep kickboxing background and being a black belt in Taekwondo. Allow Barboza to stand up and fight from the outside, he’s going to pick apart his opponent and chop away. Barboza is a black belt in Muay Thai and a black belt in BJJ as well. Barboza has a high takedown defensive percentage and doesn’t take a ton of damage on the feet. However, at 37 years old and this string of losses, it’s fair to question how much Barboza has left. This will be Barboza’s eighth career fight in Nevada.

Quarantillo has won 10 of his last 12 fights and is coming off a December win over Alexander Hernandez. Quarantillo is averaging 7.88 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 58 percent. Quarantillo is averaging 1.55 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 24 percent. Quarantillo is coming off a knockout victory at UFC 282 where he landed 127 total strikes and produced 2 takedowns. The bout earned performance of the night honors, and Quarantillo is now 6-2 under the UFC banner. Quarantillo is a lengthy fighter with a 70-inch reach and does a good job of using his distance in his standup. Quarantillo has knockout power in both hands and has produced finishes in 13 of his 17 victories. Quarantillo also has good wrestling and has produced 5 career submission victories, with 2 of those wins coming via the triangle choke. At 34 years old, this is Quarantillo’s chance to start climbing in the rankings. This will be Quarantillo’s seventh career fight in Nevada.

You can never count out Barboza given his experience and what he’s done over his career. However, Barboza is up there in age and hasn’t looked great in his last few bouts. Quarantillo is the younger, fresher fighter, is more accurate with his shots and has the takedown ability to take Barboza out of his comfort zone. Barboza just hasn’t shown us enough recently to think he has another run left in him.

Give me Quarantillo.