Yan Xiaonan vs Jessica Andrade Pick – UFC 288 Predictions & Odds 5/6/23

Jessica Andrade and Yan Xiaonan fight Saturday in UFC 288 at the Prudential Center. Andrade enters this fight with a 24-10 record and has won 38 percent of her fights by knockout. Xiaonan enters this fight with a 16-3 record and has won 56 percent of her fights by decision.

Andrade has split her last 8 fights and is coming off a February loss to Erin Blanchfield. Andrade is averaging 6.84 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Andrade is averaging 2.64 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 54 percent. Andrade is coming off a submission loss at UFC Fight Night 219 where she landed 56 total strikes and 37 percent of her significant strikes. Andrade has now been submitted 3 times in her career and hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the second time in her career. Andrade is a pressure fighter who usually gets the best of her opponent on her feet with constant wild punches and a lot of pop behind her strikes. Andrade is violent standing up and has a great ground and pound, and while she’s known for her striking, she’s also a successful takedown artist with 8 submission victories. A black belt in BJJ, Andrade has the upper body strength to get a fight wherever she wants, and her aggressiveness and brute power makes her one of the scarier fighters on the women’s side. This will be Andrade’s first career fight in New Jersey.

Xiaonan has won 7 of her last 9 fights and is coming off an October win over Mackenzie Dern. Xiaonan is averaging 5.45 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Xiaonan is averaging 0.87 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 66 percent. Xiaonan is coming off a decision win at UFC Fight Night 211 where she landed 151 total strikes and 57 percent of her significant strikes. Xiaonan has won 9 of her 10 career decisions, and 8 of her last 9 bouts have gone the distance. Xiaonan is now 7-2 under the UFC banner. Xiaonan is a blue belt in BJJ and has a background in Sanda, so she’s a very comfortable standup striker who has 7 career knockouts and will mix in some leg kicks with her power punches. Xiaonan has improved her takedown ability over the years, has shown above-average takedown defense, but she’s never won a fight by submission. Xiaonan is hard to hit on the feet and usually controls things in the clinch, where she’s become much more confident with taking a fight to the ground. This will be Xiaonan’s first career fight in New Jersey.

Andrade is going to be favored for obvious reasons, as she has the resume, the name and is the more balanced, polished fighter. I get it. Andrade is an absolute unit. However, there’s value with Xiaonan and the plus money. Xiaonan has the power striking to stand with Andrade, she’s gotten more comfortable in the clinch and has high level takedown defense. If Xiaonan can keep this on the feet, she gives herself a chance to win standing and banging.

I’ll take a shot with Xiaonan and the big plus money.