The Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs meet Sunday in NFL action from Arrowhead Stadium. Buffalo is coming off a bye week and has lost three of their last four games, falling back to .500 overall with a loss to Philadelphia in their last outing. As for the Chiefs, they’re 8-4 overall following a tough loss to Green Bay on Sunday. Let’s get into our Bills vs. Chiefs prediction. Check back all season long for free NFL picks at Sports Chat Place.

Buffalo Bills 

The Bills started out the year on a nice 3-1 run but they haven’t been able to win consecutive games since then. Buffalo is averaging 27.3 points per game and giving up 18.9 points per game so far. An average of 260.9 yards per game with 24 scores and 13 interceptions have come via the pass, along with 122.3 yards per game and 14 rushing TDs. 

Buffalo took another loss in their last game versus Philadelphia. The Bills were up 24-7 going into the final quarter but ended falling 37-34 in overtime. Buffalo’s Josh Allen put up 339 yards passing with two scores and an interception while also leading the rush on 81 yards and two more scores. 

Buffalo Bills Team Facts

• The Bills have won each of their last six games after coming off overtime.
• The Bills have covered the spread in each of their last six games after coming off overtime.
• The Bills have won the first half in seven of their last eight December games against AFC opponents.
• The Bills have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games as road underdogs against AFC West opponents.
• The Bills have won the first quarter in five of their last six games as road underdogs against the Chiefs.

Kanas City Chiefs

Over on the Chiefs’ side, they were 7-2 going into their bye week but since have lost two of three games. Kansas City averages 22.9 points per game this year and surrendering 17.3 points per game on defense. The rush hasn’t been great for the Chiefs; they’re running for just 109.9 yards per game and have scored seven ground TDs. 

The Chiefs suffered another frustrating loss at the hands of the Packers in their last game. Kansas City scored points in every quarter—and gave up points in every quarter—during a 27-19 result. QB Patrick Mahomes finished with 210 yards, one TD and one interception. Isiah Pacheco carried 18 times for 110 yards and a TD to lead the run. 

Kansas City Chiefs Team Facts

• The Chiefs have won each of their last 11 games following a loss.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread in seven of their last eight December games as home favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in each of their last nine Sunday games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
• The Chiefs have won the first half in each of their last 11 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
• The underdogs have won the first quarter in four of the Chiefs’ last five games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Chiefs are the only team in the NFL with 100% success rate on field goals and extra points this season.
• The Chiefs rank 32nd in the NFL in Q4 points per game this season (3.0).
• The Bills rank 32nd in the NFL in total punt yards this season (1514).
• The Bills rank 1st in the NFL in 3rd down percentage this season (49.7%).

ANDREW’S FREE BILLS VS CHIEFS PREDICTION 

I’ll probably just stay with the Chiefs. You could make a case either way, though. Kansas City managed 337 yards (189 passing) and 25 first downs against the Packers in another tepid offensive effort. The final minute of the game was marred by chaos, featuring an overturned fumble recovery, an ejection, an unnecessary roughness penalty and a no-call on a controversial pass interference situation. Still, the result is in the books and KC has scored fewer than 20 points in three of their last five games. They’ll need a big offensive push here. 

As for Buffalo, they should be ready for this one following an extra week of preparation. The Bills offense needs to show up as well; they’ve hit 25 or fewer points in six of their last eight games. I like a Chiefs bounce-back at home in this one, but I’m probably not touching it.