Sam Houston State vs New Mexico State Prediction 9-21-24 College Football Picks

The New Mexico State Aggies and Sam Houston Bearkats meet Saturday in week 4 college football action at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium. Here’s a Sam Houston State vs New Mexico State Prediction. This article will include a Sam Houston State vs New Mexico State Pick.

New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview

The New Mexico State Aggies recently lost to Liberty and Fresno State, and play New Mexico next. New Mexico State has won 5 of its last 8 road games. Parker Awad is completing 36.4 percent of his passes for 243 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Monte Watkins and PJ Johnson III have combined for 123 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Kordell David has 5 receptions.

The New Mexico State Aggies ground game is averaging 134.7 yards per contest, and Seth McGowan leads the way with 200 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, New Mexico State is allowing 31.3 points and 450 yards per game. Tayden Barnes leads the New Mexico State Aggies with 19 tackles, Buddha Peleti has 2 sacks and Tayden Barnes has 1 interception.

Sam Houston Bearkats Betting Preview

The Sam Houston Bearkats recently lost to UCF, beat Hawaii, and play Texas State next. The Sam Houston Bearkats have won 3 straight home games. Hunter Watson is completing 63.5 percent of his passes for 476 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Qua’Vez Humphreys and Ife Adeyi have combined for 350 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Simeon Evans has 6 receptions.

The Sam Houston Bearkats ground game is averaging 167.3 yards per contest, and Jay Ducker leads the way with 171 yards on 23 carries. Defensively, Sam Houston is allowing 24 points and 378.7 yards per game. Trey Fields leads the Sam Houston Bearkats with 21 tackles, Chris Murray has 2 sacks and Jaidan Scott has 1 interception.

Why the Sam Houston State Bearkats will win

• New Mexico State has lost 18 of its last 19 September games as an underdog.
• The home team has won four of Sam Houston State’s last five games.
• Sam Houston State has covered the spread in five of its last six games.
• New Mexico State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
• New Mexico State has lost the first half in 25 of its last 31 road games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Four of Sam Houston State’s last five games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Three of New Mexico State’s last four September road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Sam Houston State ranks T124th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (10.3).
• Sam Houston State ranks T31st among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (2.3).
• New Mexico State ranks 132nd among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (93.0).
• New Mexico State ranks T131st among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (0.0).

Sam Houston State vs New Mexico State Prediction

The Sam Houston State Bearkats aren’t a great football team, so seeing them as a double-digit favorite says a lot about New Mexico State. Through three games, New Mexico State has done nothing well on either side of the ball and is 121st in scoring offense and 111th in scoring defense. Even Southeast Missouri State gave New Mexico State a run for its money in its season opener. Not my favorite matchup on Saturday, but I’ll lay the points with Sam Houston State as a fade of New Mexico State.