Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 9-21-24 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, September 21st at loanDepot Park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game two in the series.

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 57-97 this year and they have lost two of their last three games. Miami won game one in this series by a score of 4-3 on Friday night. Prior to this series, the Marlins lost two out of three against the Dodgers, lost three out of four against the Nationals, and lost all three against the Pirates. Miami is 2-5 in their last seven games and they are last in the NL East. 

The Miami pitching staff has a 4.83 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .258 opponent batting average. The Marlins’ offense has scored 590 runs with a .242 batting average and a .297 on-base percentage. Jake Burger is batting .245 with 27 home runs and 68 RBI’s for the Marlins this season. 

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 83-71 this season and they have won two of their last three games. Atlanta dropped the first game in this series, but they need to get as many wins as they can right now. Prior to this series, the Braves won two out of three against the Reds, split four games with the Dodgers, and split two games with the Nationals. Atlanta is 2-4 in their last six games and they are third in the NL East. 

The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.54 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .239 opponent batting average. The Braves’ offense has scored 671 runs with a .242 batting average and a .308 on-base percentage. Marcell Ozuna is batting .307 with 38 home runs and 101 RBI’s for the Braves this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Adam Oller, who is 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over 31.2 innings pitched this year. Oller has allowed 3, 6, and 4 earned runs in his last three starts. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Max Fried, who is 9-10 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 159.2 innings pitched this season. Fried has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last four starts. 

Why the Marlins will beat the Braves

• The Braves have lost six of their last seven games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have won each of their last three games as underdogs against the Braves.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11-day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in nine of their last 10-day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have won the first inning in each of their last three games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five-day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Braves will beat the Marlins

• The Braves have won eight of their last nine games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Marlins have lost eight of their last nine home games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last six games following a road loss.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four-day games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Braves’ last eight games as favorites against the Marlins have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Nine of the Marlins’ last 10 games as underdogs against the Braves have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last eight-day games at LoanDepot Park.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last eight-day games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Jake Burger has hit a home run in 12 of his last 24 appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one Single in each of the Marlins’ last seven games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one total base in each of the Marlins’ last eight-day games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jake Burger has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Marlins’ last five games as underdogs against the Braves.
• Otto Lopez has scored at least one run in each of the Marlins’ last four-day games against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Max Fried has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against the Marlins.
• Michael Harris has hit at least one home run in three of the Braves’ last four games as favorites.
• Ozzie Albies has recorded a Double in each of his last four appearances after playing the previous day.
• Marcell Ozuna has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances at LoanDepot Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Ramon Laureano has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Braves’ last 10 games as road favorites.
• Jorge Soler has recorded at least one RBI in eight of his last nine road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Max Fried has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances with the Braves as favorites.
• Michael Harris has scored at least one run in each of the Braves’ last eight road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Michael Harris has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 road appearances against NL opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Miami Marlins rank 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.297).
• The Miami Marlins rank 29th in the league for walks this season (377).
• The Atlanta Braves rank 30th in the league for steals this season (64).
• The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1470).

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 

Atlanta lost the first game in this series on Friday night and they were unable to make up any ground on the Mets in the Wild Card race. The Braves are 41-38 on the road, while the Marlins are just 30-49 at home this year. Atlanta is running out of time to make the postseason, so they need a great outing from Max Fried here. Miami is going with Adam Oller, who has been roughed up in his last three outings. I don’t love the Braves offense and I think Fried will have a strong outing, so take the under here.