Duke vs SMU Prediction 10-26-24 College Football Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Duke vs SMU prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 26th at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 9  matchup. 

Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview

The Duke Blue Devils are 6-1 (2-1) this year after they defeated Florida State by a score of 23-16 in their last game. Duke led 17-6 at halftime and they were able to hold off Florida State’s comeback attempt late in the game. The Blue Devils were outgained by a total of 291-187, won the turnover battle 4-0, and went 3-17 on third down in the game. Maalik Murphy threw for 70 yards on 12 completions, while Star Thomas rushed for 88 yards and one score. 

Duke also has wins over UNC, MTSU, UConn, Northwestern, and Elon, but they do have one loss against Georgia Tech. The Duke offense has scored 25 points per game with 215.4 passing yards and 112.4 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 17.3 points per game this season. The Blue Devils have gone 26.8% on third down and 4-9 on fourth down so far this season. Maalik Murphy has completed 59.1% of his passes for 1,501 yards, 14 touchdowns, and five interceptions, while Star Thomas has rushed for 616 yards and four scores. 

SMU Mustangs Betting Preview

The SMU Mustangs are 6-1 (3-0) this season after they defeated Stanford by a score of 40-10 in their last game. SMU led 31-7 at halftime and they cruised to the easy win in the second half. The Mustangs outgained SMU by a total of 501-206, lost the turnover battle 3-2, and went 5-12 on third down in the game. Kevin Jennings threw for 322 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, while Key’Shawn Smith caught four passes for 76 yards and one score. 

SMU also has wins over Louisville, Florida State, TCU, Houston Christian, and Nevada, but they do have one loss against BYU. The SMU offense has scored 43 points per game with 240.3 passing yards and 199.6 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 20.6 points per game this season. The Mustangs have gone 45.7% on third down and 7-13 on fourth down through seven games. Kevin Jennings has completed 66% of his passes for 1,336 yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Brashard Smith has rushed for 628 yards and seven scores. 

Why SMU will cover

• SMU has won each of its last 13 games against conference opponents.
• Duke has lost 11 of its last 12 games against AP-ranked teams.
• SMU has covered the spread in each of its last seven games in October.
• Duke has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four October games against AP-ranked teams.
• SMU has won the first quarter in nine of its last 12 games against conference opponents.
• SMU has won the first half in each of its last 12 games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Duke’s last nine home games against AP-ranked teams has gone UNDER the total points line.
• Six of SMU’s last eight October games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Duke ranks T130th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (26.8).
• Duke ranks 6th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (153.6).
• SMU ranks T2nd among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (2.4).
• SMU ranks 3rd among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (12.4).

Duke vs SMU Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this game with 6-1 records on the season and Duke will be at home, but SMU is a double-digit favorite. The Mustangs have won four games in a row and they have scored at least 34 points in all four. Duke is a much lower-scoring team, as they have scored 23, 14, and 21 points in their last three games. The Blue Devils played pretty poorly against Florida State in their last game and their offense didn’t do much, but they did escape with a win. This is a tricky road game for SMU, but they are rolling right now and the Duke offense doesn’t scare me at all. Take SMU here.