Nationals vs Guardians Prediction 5/6/25 MLB Picks Today

The Cleveland Guardians and the Washington Nationals meet Tuesday in MLB doubleheader action from Nationals Park. These will be the first and second installments in a three-game series this week. Here’s a Nationals vs Guardians prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Nationals vs Guardians pick.

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Guardians kicked things off this year with a set victory over the Kansas City Royals, then took a sweep thanks to the San Diego Padres and fell in a series versus the Los Angeles Angels. Following a sweep over the Chicago White Sox and a series win versus the Royals, Cleveland fell in a set to Baltimore and swept the Pirates. The Guardians then took out the Yankees in a series and lost to the Red Sox ahead of wins in three of four over Minnesota. Cleveland lost to Toronto on Friday, then managed a 5-3 win in game two. On Sunday in the finale the Guardians eked out a 5-4 victory thanks to 10 team hits. Gabriel Arias came away with three hits, two RBI and a run in the win.

In the Monday opener versus Washington, the Guardians had a rainout and a postponement. That matchup will be made up as part of a doubleheader beginning at 3:35 p.m. ET.

Starter for game one is set to be Luis Ortiz. This year Ortiz is 2-3 with a 4.78 ERA and 36 strikeouts overall.

As starter for Tuesday’s game two Cleveland will send out Ben Lively. This year in seven starts Lively is 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA in 36.1 innings total. Lively is 22-29 with a 4.45 ERA in 81 games (68 starts) over his MLB career.

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

Over on the Nationals’ side, they opened up their season with a loss in a set to the Philadelphia Phillies and a sweep thanks to the Toronto Blue Jays. Washington would win two of three over both the Diamondbacks and Dodgers in the next pair, then fell in the next two series versus the Miami Marlins and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Nats then took out the Rockies and Orioles in the ensuing two sets, then split with the Mets ahead of losses in two of three versus the Phillies. Washington fell to Cincinnati 6-1 on Friday, then in Saturday’s matchup the Nats powered out an 11-6 win. In the Sunday rubber match Washington posted nine team hits in a 4-1 victory. Starter MacKenzie Gore finished with 5.0 innings and one earned run.

In game one the Nationals will send out Jake Irvin as starter. This year Irvin is 2-1 with a 4.01 ERA in seven starts and 42.2 innings total.

In the game two starting pitcher slot for Washington on Tuesday it’ll be Brad Lord. This year Lord is 1-3 with a 4.43 ERA in eight games (five starts) and 22.1 innings across his rookie campaign.

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Guardians have lost six of their last seven games as road favorites against National League opponents following a win.
• The underdogs have won nine of the Nationals’ last 12 games at Nationals Park.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as favorites following a road win.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in six of the Guardians’ last seven games.
• The Nationals have won the first inning in each of their last three games as home underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Nationals have led after 3 innings in each of their last eight home night games.
• The Nationals have led after 5 innings in five of their last six home night games.

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Nationals have lost 15 of their last 16 night games against American League opponents following a road win.
• The Guardians have won 12 of their last 13 games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in 15 of their last 16 night games against American League opponents following a road win.
• The Guardians have covered the run line each of their last six games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games as underdogs.
• The Guardians have led after 5 innings in each of their last six games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Nationals’ last 11 night games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Nine of the Guardians’ last 10 road games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Nationals’ last 10 night games against AL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Guardians’ last seven games as road favorites.

Nationals vs Guardians Prediction

For game one I’ll probably stay with the Guardians. Ortiz had a bumpy loss versus the Yankees back on April 23, but he bounced back well versus the Twins on April 30. Ortiz managed 6.1 clean frames with three hits and two walks in that one. Irvin is coming off six earned in 6.0 innings versus Philly, but he was pitching well before that and should be fine in this one. I like a close game in the opener.

In game two I’ll lean toward the Guardians as well. Lively should be pretty solid here. In his matchup with the Red Sox on April 26, Lively put up 5.0 innings with four earned on six hits and three walks in a no-decision. Over the other pair of his last three starts however, Lively is 1-0 in 11.0 combined frames with zero earned on nine hits and a walk. Those starts came versus the Pirates (win) and the Twins (no-decision). As for Lord, he had a couple of losses in late April but didn’t pitch badly, notching 8.0 innings with four earned runs total. In his latest outing versus the Phillies on May 1, Lord posted a win with 5.0 innings and two earned runs on six hits and a walk.