Twins vs Pirates Prediction 07/11/2025 Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Twins vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 11, at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates (38-56, 12-35 Away) are on a six-game losing skid after being swept in back-to-back series at the hands of the Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals. In Game 3, a 4-3 defeat to the Royals, Ke’Bryan Hayes led the offense with two RBI, while Bailey Falter pitched for 4.2 innings in a no-decision, allowing three runs on six hits with three strikeouts and two walks. Isaac Mattson took the loss.

This season, the Pirates average 3.39 runs per game (30th in the MLB) on a .230/.301/.340 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Pirates’ staff has a 3.68 ERA (9th) and 1.20 WHIP (3rd). Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with a .227 batting average, ten home runs, and 46 RBI this season.

Paul Skenes will take the mound for the Pirates on Friday. The 23-year-old right-hander has a 4-7 record in 19 starts this year with a 1.94 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 116.0 innings.

Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins (45-48, 26-19 Home) lost to the Detroit Tigers and Miami Marlins on the road but responded with back-to-back wins against the Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago Cubs at home. The Twins had an opportunity to sweep Chicago, but lost Game 3, 8-1. Kody Clemens drove in the lone run for Minnesota, while Chris Paddack took the loss after allowing six runs on 11 hits with two strikeouts and one walk in 5.0 innings.

This year, the Twins average 4.16 runs per game (21st in the MLB) on a .239/.309/.394 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Twins’ staff has a 4.14 ERA (22nd) and 1.25 WHIP (13th). Byron Buxton leads the Twins with a .270 batting average, 20 home runs, and 53 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Twins is Joe Ryan, who is 8-4 in 17 starts this season, with a 2.76 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 104.1 innings.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Twins’ last eight games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Pirates’ last seven road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Twins’ last six games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Pirates’ last five games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Twins rank T25th in the league for triples this season (8).
• The Twins rank 23rd in the league for batting average this season (.239).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.340).
• The Pirates rank 29th in the league for runs scored this season (319).

Twins vs Pirates Prediction

The Pirates won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including four of the last six. This game has Under written all over it. Six of the past ten H2Hs went Under, which was the case in eight of Pittsburgh’s last ten games, while seven of Minnesota’s previous ten also went Under. Paul Skenes registered four shutouts in his last six starts, and he allowed more than two runs in just three games this season. Joe Ryan, on the other hand, is Minnesota’s best pitcher this year, and he has kept the opponents below three runs in five of his previous six starts. Go with Under.