Mets vs Padres Prediction 7/30/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Padres Prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, July 30^th at Petco Park in the third game of this series, with the Padres having a 2-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 59-49 record this season and are sitting in second place in the NL West. They have a 33-18 home record, and are 44-61 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 7-1 home victory over the Mets and have four consecutive wins. Under is 6-3 in their last 9 games, and they are playing the Cardinals and the Diamondbacks next.

The Padres have a .250 batting average this season, a .318 OBP, and a .380 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.58 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.  Manny Machado leads the Padres with 125 hits, adding a team-high .301 batting average and a team-high 69 RBI. He also adds a team-high 20 home runs.

Yu Darvish (R) will take the mound for the Padres, and he has a 0-3 record, 9.18 ERA, and 1.80 WHIP.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have a 62-46 record this season and are sitting in first place in the NL East. The Mets have a 25-30 road record and are 47-56 in over/under. They are coming off a 1-7 road defeat by the Padres, and have back-to-back losses. Under is 5-3-2 in their last 10 games and are playing the Giants and the Guardians next.

The Mets have a .242 batting average this season, a .321 OBP, and a .411 slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 3.58 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.  Francisco Lindor leads the Mets with 107 hits, while Pete Alonso adds a team-high 81 RBI and leads the team in batting average with .261. Juan Soto adds a team-high 25 home runs.

Clay Holmes (R) will take the mound for the Mets, and he has a 9-5 record, 3.40 ERA, and 1.28 WHIP.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last five games as favorites against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Padres have won five of their last six games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Padres’ last nine games at Petco Park.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games as road favorites against National League opponents.
• The Padres have won the first inning in three of their last four games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in nine of their last 11 home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won 10 of their last 11 road games against NL West opponents following a loss.
• The Padres have lost three of their last four day games against the Mets following a win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in 16 of their last 17 games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against the Mets following a win.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in four of their last five day games against NL West opponents.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine day games against the Padres.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last seven games as favorites against the Padres have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Padres’ last eight games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last eight Wednesday day games at Petco Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last four day games against NL West opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (91).
• The Padres rank 2nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.228).
• The Mets rank T1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (94).
• The Mets are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.

Mets vs Padres Prediction

The Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 overall meetings against the Mets, and 6-2 in their last 8 meetings in San Diego.

In this Mets vs Padres Prediction, the Mets are coming as -120 road favorites. New York has a better overall record, but they have been below average on the road, while San Diego is one of the strongest teams at home in the majors. Darvish has not been the same so far for the Padres, and he is coming off his worst start of the season. Holmes has been up and down lately for the Mets, but I certainly trust him more than Darvish, and he has a better offense to back him up. Take the New York Mets for the bounce-back road victory in this one.