Cubs vs Pirates Prediction 9/15/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for this MLB game on Monday, September 15^th at the PNC Park the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 65-85 record this season and are sitting on the last place of the NL Central. They have a 42-33 home record, and are 60-85 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-4 road defeat by the Nationals, and are 1-7 in their last 8 games. Under is 7-1 in their last 8 games are playing the Reds and the Athletics next.

The Pirates have a .231 batting average this season, .305 OBP and .349 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with 133 hits, and a team-high 71 RBI. He is also the team’s best hitter with a .242 batting average, while Oneil Cruz leads the team in home runs, with 19.

Braxton Ashcraft (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 4-2 record, 2.47 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have an 85-64 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL Central. The Cubs have a 39-35 road record and are 67-70 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-5 home defeat by the Rays, which ended their three-game winning streak. Under is 6-4 in their last 10 games and are playing the Mets and the Reds next.

The Cubs have a .249 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .427 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Nico Hoerner leads the Cubs with 162 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .299 batting average. Seiya Suzuki leads the team in RBI, with 91, adding a team-high 28 home runs.

Jameson Taillon (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 9-6 record, 4.15 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.

The Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: September 15, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft      Record this season: 4-2      ERA: 2.47
• Home Record: 3-1
• Last 5 against Cubs: 0-0

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Cubs have lost each of their last 10 Monday games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The underdogs have won three of the Cubs’ last four games at PNC Park.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 14 games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs following a road loss.
• The Cubs have lost the first inning in each of their last three road games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven home night games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jameson Taillon      Record this season: 9-6      ERA: 4.15
• Road Record: 5-4
• Last 5 against Pirates: 3-1

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Pirates have lost 10 of their last 11 games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have won six of their last seven road games against the Pirates.
• The road team has covered the run line in seven of the last eight games between the Cubs and Pirates.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight night games against the Pirates.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games against NL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last six night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Pirates’ last eight games as underdogs against the Cubs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last seven Monday games against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last four games as favorites.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Oneil Cruz has recorded a Double in four of the Pirates’ last five home games against the Cubs.
• Oneil Cruz has recorded at least one hit in nine of his last 10 home appearances against the Cubs.
• Jack Suwinski has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances against the Cubs.
• Oneil Cruz ranks T3rd in the league in Steals (38) this season.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Ian Happ has hit a home run in each of the Cubs’ last two games as favorites.
• Ian Happ has recorded a Double in six of the Cubs’ last seven road games against the Pirates.
• Jameson Taillon has recorded five or more strikeouts in 13 of his last 16 appearances at PNC Park.
• Dansby Swanson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 12 night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Jameson Taillon has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Nico Hoerner ranks 7th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.299) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (540).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (107).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (376).
• The Cubs rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (151).

Cubs vs Pirates Prediction

The Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Pirates, and are 2-1 in their last 3 meetings in Pittsburgh. Under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 meetings.

In this Cubs vs Pirates Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -135 road favorites. The Pirates have the pitching advantage in this game, as Ashcraft has been excellent this season, and he is coming into this matchup in amazing form, having one earned run or less in his last six starts. On the flip side, Taillon has been weaker on the road for the Cubs, with a 4.99 ERA, and he has been struggling lately, with a 7.36 ERA across his last 5 starts. I like the Pirates to keep this one close as long as those two pitchers are on the mound, so take the Pittsburgh Pirates by +0.5 runs in the first 5 innings of the game.