Red Sox vs Rays Prediction 9/21/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 21^st at the George M. Steinbrenner Field in the second game of this series, with the Red Sox having the 2-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 75-80 record this season and are sitting on the 4^th place of the AL East. The Rays have a 40-40 home record and are 68-77 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-6 home defeat by the Red Sox, and have back-to-back losses. They are playing the Orioles and the Blue Jays next.

The Rays have a .251 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .403 slugging percentage. Tampa’s pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.  Yandy Diaz leads the Rays with 172 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with .302 batting average. Junior Caminero leads the team in RBI, with 108 and in home runs, with 44.

Joe Boyle (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 1-3 record, 4.64 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have an 85-70 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the AL East. The Red Sox have a 39-38 road record and are 74-77 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-3 road victory over the Rays, and are 3-1 in their last 4 games. They are playing the Tigers and the Blue Jays next.

The Red Sox have a .254 batting average this season, .324 OBP and .423 slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.74 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Trevor Story leads the Red Sox with 155 hits, while is the team’s best hitter, with a .265 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 95, adding a team-high 25 home runs.

Connelly Early (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, and he has a 1-0 record, 0.87 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: September 21, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Joe Boyle      Record this season: 1-3      ERA: 4.64
• Home Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 0-1

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The underdogs have won four of the Rays’ last five games.
• The Red Sox have lost four of their last five games as favorites following a win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last six games as home underdogs against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against the Rays following a win.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven games as home underdogs.
• The Rays have won the first inning in seven of their last eight games as underdogs.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Connelly Early      Record this season: 1-0      ERA: 0.87
• Road Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Rays: –

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last eight games against the Rays.
• The Rays have lost eight of their last nine night games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last nine Sunday games as road favorites.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 games against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last five Sunday night games as favorites.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in five of their last six night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last three games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Rays’ last eight games as underdogs against the Red Sox have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Rays’ last eight games as underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games as favorites against American League opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Rays as home underdogs against the Red Sox.
• Taylor Walls has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against AL East opponents.
• Taylor Walls has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Chandler Simpson ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (42) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Alex Bregman has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with his team as a road favorite against the Rays.
• Wilyer Abreu has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances with the Red Sox as road favorites.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last nine games against the Rays.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 1st in the league for steals this season (187).
• The Rays are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (307).
• The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for hits this season (1355).

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction

The Red Sox are 10-1 in their last 11 head-to-head meetings against the Rays, and are 4-1 in their last 5 visits in Tampa Bay. Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 meetings.

In this Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, the Red Sox are coming as -130 road favorites. The Rays have already been eliminated from the upcoming playoffs, while the Red Sox currently hold a Wild Card spot. Early has looked great in his two starts for the Red Sox, with just one earned run in 10.1 innings pitched, while Boyle had 15 earned runs in his three starts before his last shutout. Boston has a better bullpen and a better offense, while Tampa has been terrible against lefties. Take the Boston Red Sox to take care of business on the road in this one.