Brewers vs Cubs Prediction 10/9/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Brewers vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, October 9^th at the Wrigley Field in Game 4 of this NLDS series, with the Brewers having the 2-1 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have a 95-73 record this season and were placed second in the NL Central. The Cubs have 53-32 home record and are 77-78 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-3 home victory over the Brewers, that snapped their two-game losing streak. Over is 3-0 in their last 3 games.

The Cubs have a .249 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .430 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Nico Hoerner leads the team with 9 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .391 batting average. Seiya Suzuki adds a team-high 4 RBI, while Michael Busch adds a team-high 3 home runs.

Matthew Boyd (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 14-8 record, 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.

Milwaukee Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers have a 99-66 record this season and were placed first in the NL Central. The Brewers have a 45-37 road record and are 80-80 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-4 road defeat by the Cubs in Game 3, that ended their three-game winning streak. Over is 4-1 in their last 5 games.

The Brewers have a .258 batting average this season, .332 OBP and .403 slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.58 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Jackson Chourio leads the Brewers with 6 hits in the playoffs, adding a team-high 6 RBI. Blake He is also the team’s best hitter, with a .545 batting average, while four players have one home run each.

Freddy Peralta (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers, and he has a 17-6 record, 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.

Milwaukee Brewers @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: October 9, 2025

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Brewers have lost each of their last eight road playoff games.
• The Cubs have won each of their last five games as home underdogs against the Brewers.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 games as road favorites following a road loss.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in 16 of the Brewers’ last 18 games at Wrigley Field.
• The Brewers have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven home night games.
• The Brewers have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games as road favorites.

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

• The favorites have won each of the Cubs’ last 11 games.
• The Cubs have lost seven of their last eight playoff games following a win.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven playoff games as underdogs following a win.
• The Brewers have covered the run line each of their last eight Thursday games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have lost the first inning in three of their last four games as underdogs.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games as underdogs.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last six playoff games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Brewers’ last five playoff games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Cubs’ last eight games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Brewers’ last five night games at Wrigley Field.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in three of the Cubs’ last four home games against NL Central opponents.
• Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 home appearances.
• Seiya Suzuki has recorded a Double in each of the Cubs’ last three home games.
• Nico Hoerner ranks 6th in the league in Hits (178) this season.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Jackson Chourio has hit a home run in each of the Brewers’ last two night games.
• Jackson Chourio has recorded a Double in each of his last three road appearances against the Cubs.
• Sal Frelick has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances against NL Central opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (405).
• The Cubs rank T3rd in the league for RBIs this season (771).
• The Brewers rank 2nd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.332).
• The Brewers rank 2nd in the league for steals this season (164).

Brewers vs Cubs Prediction

The Brewers are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Cubs, but the Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Chicago. Over is 4-1 in their last 5 meetings.

In this Brewers vs Cubs Prediction, the Brewers are coming as -125 road favorites. The Cubs lived to fight another day with a close win yesterday, and have another chance to force a Game 5 today. There will be a pitcher’s duel in this matchup, as Matthew Boyd goes up against Freddy Peralta. Both pitchers have been elite this season, with a combined 5.91 ERA. Both bullpens have been top-4 in the postseason, with Milwaukee’s bullpen boasting a 0.50 ERA. With this being an elimination game, I expect a cautious approach and a low-scoring grind. Take the under 7 runs.