USC vs TCU Prediction Football Picks Today 12/30/25

In this article, we will formulate a USC vs TCU Prediction for this College Football Alamo Bowl Game on Tuesday, December 30^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

TCU Horned Frogs Preview

TCU has an 8-4 record this season and finished 5-4 in the Big 12. They are coming off a 45-23 home win against Cincinnati. Offensively, TCU averages 30.8 points per game, ranking 43rd in the nation, while defensively, they allow 25.2 points per game, which is 72nd. TCU averages 425.3 total yards per game (292.8 passing and 132.6 rushing), while allowing 377.1 total yards per game (134.3 rushing and 242.8 passing).

Josh Hoover leads TCU with 3,472 passing yards with 65.9% completed passes and 29 touchdowns. Jeremy Payne leads the team in rushing yards with 550, while Eric McAlister has a team-high 64 receptions for 1,121 receiving yards. Defensively, Kaleb Elarms-Orr has a team-high 119 total tackles (57 of them solo), while Kaleb Elarms-Orr leads the team in sacks, with 4, and Jamel Johnson, Bud Clark lead the team with 4 interceptions each.

USC Trojans Preview

USC has a 9-3 record this season and finished 7-2 in the Big Ten. They are coming off a 29-10 home win against UCLA. Offensively, USC averages 36.5 points per game, ranking 13th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 22.4 points per game, which is 48th. USC averages 471.6 total yards per game (297.3 passing and 174.3 rushing), while allowing 348.8 total yards per game (145.4 rushing and 203.3 passing).

Jayden Maiava leads USC with 3,431 passing yards with 66.2% completed passes and 23 touchdowns. Ja’Kobi Lane leads the team in rushing yards with 745, while Makai Lemon has a team-high 79 receptions for 1,156 receiving yards. Defensively, Desman Stephens II has a team-high 83 total tackles (54 of them solo), while Kameryn Crawford leads the team in sacks, with 3.5, and Bishop Fitzgerald has a team-high 5 interceptions.

USC Trojans @ TCU Horned Frogs Betting Trends: Bowl

Why the TCU Horned Frogs will win

• The underdog has won each of USC’s last four Bowl games.
• USC has lost each of its last three games as a favorite at neutral venues.
• USC has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven games as a favorite at neutral venues.
• The underdog has covered the spread in seven of USC’s last eight Bowl games.
• TCU has won the first half in each of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
• TCU has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.

Why the USC Trojans will win

• USC has won each of its last 11 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• TCU has lost four of its last five games against AP-ranked teams.
• USC has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games against non-conference opponents.
• TCU has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games as an underdog.
• USC has won the first quarter in each of its last three games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of USC’s last five games as a favorite at neutral venues have gone OVER the total points line.
• Eight of TCU’s last 10 games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

TCU Horned Frogs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into the bowl games, Eric McAlister ranks 5th amongst FBS players for receiving yards (1121) this season.

USC Trojans Player Prop Facts

• Heading into the bowl games, Makai Lemon ranks 4th amongst FBS players for receiving yards (1156) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• TCU ranks 8th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (292.8).
• TCU ranks 125th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (9.0).
• USC ranks 3rd among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+5.9).
• USC ranks 5th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (52.1).

USC vs TCU Prediction

In this USC vs TCU Prediction, USC is coming as -6.5-point favorites. Both teams have almost identical overall records and similar home/away splits and both are coming into this matchup in good form, as TCU has back-to-back wins and USC is 4-1 in its last 5 games, but just 3-7 against the spread in its last 10. USC has been better both offensively and defensively this season, having the 13^th-best offense in the country and a +14.1 point differential, so I expect them to get the job done today. Take USC and lay the -6.5 points in this one.