Broncos vs Bills Prediction 1/17/26 NFL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Broncos vs Bills prediction for this NFL game on Saturday, January 17th at Mile High Stadium in Denver, Colorado. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this AFC Divisional matchup. 

Denver Broncos Betting Preview

The Denver Broncos are 14-3 this season after they defeated the Chargers by a score of 19-3 in their last game, which allowed them to have a bye last week. Denver led 10-3 at halftime and they outscored LA 9-0 in the second half for the relatively easy win. The Broncos out gained LA by a total of 240-217, went 5-15 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-0 in the game. Bo Nix went 14-23 for 141 yards, while also rushing for 49 yards on eight carries. Evan Engram led the receivers with three catches for 45 yards in the win. 

Prior to that game, Denver defeated the Chiefs by a score of 20-13, but lost to the Jaguars by a score of 34-20 before that. The Broncos have won 13 of their last 14 games and they finished first in the AFC West standings. Denver has scored 23.6 points per game with 223.9 passing yards and 118.7 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 18.3 points against per game this season. Bo Nix has thrown for 3,931 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while RJ Harvey has rushed for 540 yards and seven scores on 146 carries. Courtland Sutton has led the receivers with 1,017 yards and seven touchdowns on 74 receptions this season. 

Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

The Buffalo Bills are 12-5 this year after they defeated Jacksonville by a score of 27-24 in their last game. Buffalo led 10-7 at halftime and 20-17 in the fourth quarter, but they needed a touchdown with 1:07 left to seal the victory. The Bills were out gained by a total of 359-340, went 7-14 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Josh Allen went 28-35 for 273 yards and one touchdown, while James Cook III rushed 15 times for 46 yards. Khalil Shakir led the receivers with 12 catches for 82 yards in the win. 

Prior to that game, Buffalo defeated the Jets by a score of 35-8, but lost to the Eagles by a score of 13-12 before that. The Bills have won six of their last seven games and they finished second in the AFC East standings. Buffalo has scored 28.3 points per game with 216.6 passing yards and 159.6 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 21.5 points against per game this season. Josh Allen has thrown for 3,668 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while James Cook III has rushed for 1,621 yards and 12 scores on 309 carries this year. 

Why the Denver Broncos will win

• The Broncos have won 13 of their last 14 games.
• The Bills have lost eight of their last nine road postseason games.
• The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last eight games as favorites without Alex Singleton.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games without Dawson Knox.
• The Broncos have won the first half in seven of their last eight games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
• The Broncos have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games against AFC East opponents.
• The Broncos have won the first quarter in nine of their last 12 home games against teams that held a winning record.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Broncos’ last seven games as favorites following a home win have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of the Bills’ last six January games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.

Denver Broncos Player Prop Facts

• Jaleel McLaughlin has recorded 37+ rushing yards in each of the Broncos’ last three games.
• Bo Nix has recorded 242+ passing yards in five of the Broncos’ last six games following a home win.
• Troy Franklin has recorded 21+ receiving yards in each of the Broncos’ last nine games following a home win.
• Bo Nix has recorded 23+ completions in six of the Broncos’ last seven games.
• RJ Harvey has scored at least one touchdown in five of the Broncos’ last six games.
• Marvin Mims Jr. has recorded 17+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Broncos’ last seven games as favorites following a home win.
• Heading into the Divisional Round, Bo Nix ranks 1st amongst qualified players for sack percentage (3.5%) this season.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

• James Cook has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Bills’ last four day road games against teams on a winning streak.
• James Cook has scored at least one touchdown in five of the Bills’ last six games as road underdogs against teams that held a winning record.
• James Cook has recorded 80+ rushing yards in five of the Bills’ last six games following a road win.
• Brandin Cooks has recorded 36+ receiving yards in 10 of his last 11 appearances against AFC West opponents.
• Brandin Cooks has recorded 46+ rushing and receiving yards in 10 of his last 11 appearances against AFC West opponents.
• James Cook ranked 1st in the NFL in rushing yards (1621) during the reg. season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Broncos – 15 different players have recorded 1.0 sacks or more in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Divisional Round.
• The Broncos ranked 1st in the NFL in sacks (68.0) during the reg. season.
• Bills – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Divisional Round.
• Bills – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Divisional Round.

Broncos vs Bills Prediction 

Buffalo was able to win a thrilling game against Jacksonville last weekend, but they struggled at times and Josh Allen did not look healthy. The Bills have played well over the last two months, but they will face a very tough Denver defense here. The Broncos have won 13 of their last 14 games, but most of those games have been very close. Denver has struggled to put teams away, but they have allowed 17 points or fewer in three of their last five games. I think Denver has a huge advantage on defense, while Buffalo’s defense is very average. Take the Broncos to win at home.