Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 4/11/26 MLB Picks Today

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Saturday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Arizona Diamondbacks will send out Brandon Pfaadt for the start here and Pfaadt is 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA and 5 strikeouts this season. This will be Pfaadt’s second career start against the Phillies. The Philadelphia Phillies will start Taijuan Walker here and Walker is 0-2 with a 9.31 ERA and 6 strikeouts this season. In his career, Walker is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 5 strikeouts against the Diamondbacks.

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game looking to add on to their 5-4 win over Philadelphia last time out to sit at 8-6 this season. After this series, the Diamondbacks will head on the road again for a series against the Baltimore Orioles.

Diamondbacks Win 3 Straight & 5 Of Last 6

Corbin Carroll leads the Diamondbacks with 14 hits including 3 doubles, 3 triples, 2 home runs and a team-high 11 RBIs while Alek Thomas has logged 3 doubles with 5 RBIs as well this season. Ketel Marte has 11 hits with 2 doubles, a home run and 6 RBIs and Geraldo Perdomo has 8 hits, with 2 doubles, a home run and 4 RBIs as well this season. Gabriel Moreno also has 11 hits with 5 doubles and Jose Fernandez has 2 home runs and 5 RBIs this season. Ildemaro Vargas also has 12 hits with 2 doubles, a triple, a home run and 5 RBIs.

Philadelphia Phillies Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to shake off their loss at the hands of Arizona on Friday to sit at 6-7 this season. After this series, the Phillies will take on the Chicago Cubs in a set at home.

Phillies Lose 3 In A Row

Adolis Garcia has 11 hits with a pair of doubles, 2 home runs and 4 RBIs while Kyle Schwarber has 8 hits with 2 doubles, 3 home runs and 6 RBIs. Brandon Marsh has 12 hits with 3 doubles, 2 home runs and 9 RBIs while Justin Crawford also has 12 hits with 2 doubles, a triple and an RBI. Trea Turner has 14 hits with 4 doubles and 3 RBIs and Bryce Harper’s added 12 hits with 4 doubles, 2 home runs and 8 RBIs this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: April 11, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Taijuan Walker      Record this season: 0-2      ERA: 9.31
• Home Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 0-1

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last nine day games against NL West opponents following a home loss.
• The Diamondbacks have lost nine of their last 10 day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games against NL West opponents following a home loss.
• The Diamondbacks have lost the first inning in three of their last four games.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites against NL West opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt      Record this season: 0-0      ERA: 6.75
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Phillies: 0-1

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won each of their last four games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Phillies have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last 20 games as road underdogs following a win.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six home games.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven day games against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Diamondbacks’ last four games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Phillies’ last six home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the last 10 games between the Diamondbacks and Phillies.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Diamondbacks’ last nine day games at Citizens Bank Park.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Marsh has hit a home run in two of the Phillies’ last three games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
• Taijuan Walker has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his 10 previous home appearances against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Saturday appearances with the Phillies as favorites.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Nolan Arenado has hit at least one home run in three of his four previous Saturday day appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
• Brandon Pfaadt has recorded five or more strikeouts in 21 of his last 26 appearances in day games.
• Ildemaro Vargas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 road appearances.
• Corbin Carroll ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.690) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (29).
• The Phillies rank T27th in the league for runs scored this season (46).
• The Diamondbacks rank T2nd in the league for doubles this season (29).
• The Diamondbacks rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (5).

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

I’m on the over in this one. I just don’t trust either starting pitcher here and I think both could get roughed up early and often in this matchup and then are also followed up by two questionable bullpens so give me the over in what i see as a high-scoring matchup early here.