Pirates vs Reds Prediction 5/3/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Pirates vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, May 3rd at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 18-16 this year after they won the first two games in this series by scores of 9-1 and 17-7. In game two, Pittsburgh trailed 2-0 after the top of the first, but they scored five runs in the bottom of the first and ended up cruising to the easy win. The Pirates recorded 19 hits in the game and they were led by Horwitz, Ozuna, and O’Hearn, who all had three RBIs. Mlodzinski has allowed eight hits and five earned runs over 5.2 innings for the win, while Soto closed out the game. Prior to this series, Pittsburgh lost all four against the Cardinals, but did win two out of three against the Brewers before that. 

This season, Pittsburgh has a 3.83 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .224 opponent batting average, while they have scored 179 runs with a .254 batting average and a .340 on base percentage. Oneil Cruz has led the Pirates with nine home runs and 27 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added eight home runs and 21 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Braxton Ashcraft, who is 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 34.0 innings pitched this year. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 20-13 this season after they lost game two by a score of 17-7 on Saturday afternoon. Cincinnati cut the deficit to 5-3 in the second inning, but they allowed the next 10 runs for the blowout loss. The Reds recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Lowe, who went 2-4 with three RBIs. Lowder allowed five hits and eight earned runs over 1.1 innings for the loss, while Burke allowed five earned runs in relief. Prior to this series, Cincinnati won two out of three against the Rockies and two out of three against the Tigers. 

This season, Cincinnati has a 4.59 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP and a .257 opponent batting average, while they have scored 141 runs with a .220 batting average and a .307 on base percentage. Sal Stewart has led the Reds with nine home runs and 29 RBIs, while Elly De La Cruz has added 10 home runs and 25 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Chase Burns, who is 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 34.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Reds have lost each of their last seven games at PNC Park against teams that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have won each of their last six day games against the Reds following a home win.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games against the Pirates following a loss.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Reds.
• The Reds have lost the first inning in each of their last four games.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six day games.
• The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 games at PNC Park against opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Pirates have lost four of their last five games as favorites following a win.
• The underdogs have won six of the Pirates’ last eight games at PNC Park.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games following a home win.
• The Reds have covered the run line in four of their last five games following a loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last eight games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Pirates’ last nine day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last seven games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last four day games at PNC Park.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in three of the Pirates’ last four games against the Reds.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last 11 games as favorites against the Reds.
• Nick Gonzales ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.336) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• JJ Bleday has hit at least one home run in three of his last five appearances with his team as a road underdog against NL opponents.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 12 games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T7th in the league in Home Runs (10) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (322).
• The Pirates rank 2nd in the league for runs scored this season (179).
• The Reds rank 30th in the league for hits this season (240).
• The Reds rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.220).

Pirates vs Reds Prediction 

Pittsburgh has won the first two games in this series and they have scored 42 runs in their last five games. The Pirates are 10-9 at home this year, while the Reds are 10-5 on the road. Cincinnati has lost three of their last four games and they have allowed at least nine runs in all three of those losses. The Reds are starting Burns, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts, while Ashcraft has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Take the under in this one.