Brewers vs Pirates Prediction 7/10/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, July 10^th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 47-47 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL Central. They have a 24-24 home record and are coming off a 5-10 home loss against the Braves. They will face the Guardians and the Yankees next.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a .262 batting average this season, .340 OBP and .423 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.32 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .310 batting average. Brandon Lowe leads the team in RBI with 64, adding a team-high 21 home runs.

Braxton Ashcraft (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he has a 9-3 record, 3.24 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

Milwaukee Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers have a 59-34 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL Central. They have a 30-16 away record and are coming off a 8-4 road win against the Cardinals. They will face the Marlins and the Mets next.

The Milwaukee Brewers have a .255 batting average this season, .337 OBP and .398 Slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.33 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. William Contreras is the team’s best hitter with a .281 batting average. Jake Bauers leads the team in RBI with 57, adding a team-high 17 home runs.

Brandon Sproat (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he has a 3-4 record, 5.13 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: July 10, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft      Record this season: 9-3      ERA: 3.24
• Home Record: 4-1
• Last 5 against Brewers: 0-0

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Brewers have lost seven of their last eight night games against the Pirates following a road win.
• The Pirates have won five of their last six night games against the Brewers at PNC Park following a loss.
• The favorites have covered the run line in eight of the last nine games between the Brewers and Pirates.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games following a win.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games as favorites.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games as favorites.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brandon Sproat      Record this season: 3-4      ERA: 5.13
• Road Record: 1-2
• Last 5 against Pirates: –

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

• The Brewers have won each of their last four games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have lost three of their last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as road underdogs.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Friday games.
• The Brewers have led after 3 innings in eight of their last 10 games as underdogs.
• The Brewers have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games at PNC Park.
• The Brewers have won the first inning in three of their last four games at PNC Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates’ last six games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Brewers’ last five games as underdogs against the Pirates have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Brewers’ last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of Braxton Ashcraft’s last four appearances as a starter.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit a home run in four of his five previous appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Braxton Ashcraft has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances.
• Marcell Ozuna has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Pirates as favorites.
• Braxton Ashcraft has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances.
• Nick Gonzales ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.310) this season.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Christian Yelich has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances against the Pirates.
• Brandon Sproat has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances in night games.
• Christian Yelich has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against the Pirates.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (857).
• The Pirates rank 2nd in the league for RBIs this season (472).
• The Brewers rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.33).
• The Brewers rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (903).

Brewers vs Pirates Prediction

The Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings against the Pirates and have won their last three visits in Pittsburgh.

In this Brewers vs Pirates Prediction, the Pirates are coming as -130 home favorites. I like the Pirates in this one as they have the pitching edge with Braxton Ashcraft on the mound. He has given up one run in three of his last four starts and has a 4-1 record and 3.19 ERA at home, while Brandon Sproat has been bad with a 5.13 ERA. The Pirates have been the 4^th-best team against right-handed pitching in the month of July while the Brewers are 15^th. Take the Pirates to win this one at home.