Philadelphia Phillies vs NY Mets Prediction 7/18/26 MLB Picks Today

The New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Saturday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The New York Mets will send out Sean Manaea for the start here and Manaea is 2-4 with a 4.56 ERA and 74 strikeouts this season. Jesus Luzardo will start for the Phillies and is 8-4 with a 3.51 ERA and 136 strikeouts this season.

New York Mets Recap

The New York Mets come into this game looking to add on to their 3-1 win over the Phillies from Thursday to sit at 41-57 this season. After this series, the Mets will head on the road for a game against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Mets Snap Three-Game Slide

Juan Soto has 81 hits with 8 doubles, 21 home runs and 51 RBIs. Brett Baty has 66 hits with 13 doubles, a triple, 5 home runs and 32 RBIs. Marcus Semien also has 62 hits with 8 doubles, 9 home runs and 29 RBIs as well this season. Bo Bichette also has 97 hits with 14 doubles, 10 home runs and 51 RBIs as well this season. Francisco Alvarez has also added 55 hits with 7 doubles and 11 home runs this season. Carson Benge also has 94 hits with 12 doubles, 2 triples, 11 home runs and 37 RBIs and Mark Vientos has added 50 hits with 9 doubles, 11 home runs and 35 RBIs.

Philadelphia Phillies Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to bounce bac fro their loss at the hands of the Mets on Thursday to sit at 54-44 this season. After this series, the Phillies will take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in a series at home.

Phillies Have Two-Game Win Streak Snapped

Adolis Garcia has 45 hits with 8 doubles, 7 home runs and 21 RBIs while Kyle Schwarber has 90 hits with 10 doubles, 32 home runs and 59 RBIs. Brandon Marsh has 102 hits with 15 doubles, 15 home runs and 46 RBIs while Justin Crawford also has 70 hits with 12 doubles, 3 triples, 2 home runs and 21 RBIs. Trea Turner has 92 hits with 16 doubles, 11 home runs and 34 RBIs and Bryce Harper’s added 90 hits with 18 doubles, 20 home runs and 57 RBIs this season.

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: July 18, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo      Record this season: 8-4      ERA: 3.51
• Home Record: 2-4
• Last 5 against Mets: 3-0

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last six games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Mets have lost each of their last seven Saturday road games.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Saturday road games.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in six of their last seven games following a home loss.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven home games.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven games as road underdogs.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Sean Manaea      Record this season: 2-4      ERA: 4.56
• Road Record: 1-3
• Last 5 against Phillies: 2-1

Why the New York Mets will win

• The underdogs have won three of the Mets’ last four games.
• The Phillies have lost four of their last five day games against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last four games against the Phillies.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in three of their last four road day games.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road day games.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Phillies’ last eight games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Mets’ last six day games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Phillies’ last seven games.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Mets’ last eight games as underdogs against National League opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Trea Turner has hit a home run in four of the Phillies’ last five home games.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last eight home appearances against NL East opponents.
• Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last nine games as favorites against the Mets.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded a win in each of his last four home appearances against the Mets.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (32) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• A.J. Ewing has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Sean Manaea has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his last eight appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Francisco Alvarez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 road appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.412) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.302).
• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (957).
• The Mets rank T29th in the league for doubles this season (121).
• The Mets rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.303).

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

I’m on the Phillies here. The Phillies have done a really solid job in winning Luzardo’s starts recently and I don’t see that slowing down here. Manaea has been a serviceable option for the Mets, but I’m looking for the Phillies to keep rolling behind Luzardo and I think the Phillies take care of business here. Give me the Phils.