Indiana vs North Texas Prediction Football Picks Today 9/5/26

In this article we will formulate an Indiana vs North Texas prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 5th at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Indiana. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 1 matchup. 

Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview

The Indiana Hoosiers went 16-0 (9-0) last season and they finished tied for first in the Big Ten with Ohio State. Indiana started the season with a 27-14 win over Old Dominion and they followed that up with a 56-9 win over Kennesaw State. The Hoosiers went undefeated and they scored at least 30 points in 11 of their 16 games. Indiana defeated Ohio State by a score of 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship, before beating Alabama, Oregon, and Miami to win the National Championship. The Hoosiers scored 41.6 points per game in 2025, while they allowed 11.7 points against per game on defense. 

This season, Indiana will try to repeat as Champions with Josh Hoover at quarterback, who transferred from TCU. The Hoosiers will have a great offensive line and the wide receiver talent is similar to last year, but the running back room needs to replace a lot of production. On defense, Indiana will have quite a few upper class men, which will help ease the transition from last year’s unit. The defense should be solid, but will probably take a step back. 

North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview

The North Texas Mean Green were 12-2 (7-1) last year and they finished tied for first in the American standings. North Texas started the season with a 51-0 win over Lamar and defeated Western Michigan by a score of 33-30 in week two. The Mean Green picked up their first loss against South Florida in early October and didn’t lose again until the American Championship game against Tulane. North Texas did win the New Mexico Bowl by a score of 49-47 against San Diego State. The Mean Green scored 45.1 points per game in 2025, while they allowed 26.5 points against per game on defense. 

This year, North Texas will have just about all new starters on both sides of the ball. The Mean Green will start Tayven Jackson at quarterback, who has been on a few different teams. North Texas brought in plenty of talent from the portal, but it could take a few games for them to figure it all out. On defense, North Texas will face the same issue, so we will see how quick each unit can learn to play together. 

Why the Indiana Hoosiers will win

• Indiana has won each of its last 21 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• North Texas has lost each of its last five games against AP-ranked teams.
• Indiana has covered the spread in each of its last six home games in September.
• North Texas has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games against AP-ranked teams.
• Indiana has won the first half in each of its last 15 games at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington).
• Indiana has won the first quarter in each of its last nine games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Why the North Texas Mean Green will win

• North Texas has won each of its last six games in September.
• North Texas has covered the spread in five of its last six season openers.
• North Texas has won the first half in five of its last six games.
• North Texas has won the first quarter in 14 of its last 18 games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Indiana’s last eight September games at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington) have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of North Texas’ last seven road games in September have gone OVER the total points line.

Indiana Hoosiers Player Prop Facts

• Isaiah Jones was one of only eight players in the FBS to record 7+ sacks and an interception last season.

North Texas Mean Green Player Prop Facts

• Dominic De Freitas ranked T1st in the Sun Belt Conference for made field goals (21) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Indiana recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 10+ points of any FBS team last season (7).
• Indiana recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 35+ points of any FBS team last season (4).
• North Texas ranked 1st among FBS teams for points per game last season (45.1).
• North Texas scored 40+ points in four road games last season – most of any FBS team.

Indiana vs North Texas Prediction 

Indiana comes into this matchup with plenty of new faces, but they are still the way more talented team and will be at home. The Hoosiers will have some issues once the schedule gets tougher, but they should have no problems here. North Texas also has a bunch of portal players, but I am not confident they are ready to play at a high level. I do think Indiana will win easily, but we saw them stumble in week one last year and this is a ton of points, so I will back North Texas here.