Louisiana-Monroe vs Mississippi State Prediction Football Picks Today 9/5/26

In this article, we will formulate a Louisiana-Monroe vs Mississippi State Prediction for this College Football Week 1 matchup on Saturday, September 5^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Preview

Mississippi State finished last season with a 5-8 overall record, a 1-7 conference record, and placed 14th in the Southeastern. They had a 3-4 home record and a 2-3 road record. Offensively, the Bulldogs scored 30.4 points per game (ranking 42nd in the nation). Defensively, Mississippi State allowed 30.2 points per game (ranking 107th in the nation). They averaged 399.2 total yards per game (158 rushing, 241.2 passing) and gave up 409.3 total yards per game (186.3 rushing, 223.0 passing).

Blake Shapen led the Bulldogs with 195/303 completed passes and 2,433 total passing yards, throwing 15 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Fluff Bothwell led the team in rushing yards with 677, adding a team-high 6 rushing touchdowns, while Brenen Thompson had a team-high 57 caught passes for 1,054 receiving yards and 8 receiving touchdowns. Defensively, Jahron Manning led the team with 91 total tackles (36 solo), while Malick Sylla led Mississippi State in sacks with 2.0.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Preview

Louisiana-Monroe finished last season with a 3-9 overall record, a 1-7 conference record, and placed 7th in the Sun Belt (West Division). They had a 2-3 home record and a 1-6 road record. Offensively, the Warhawks scored 16.6 points per game (ranking 130th in the nation). Defensively, Louisiana-Monroe allowed 31.9 points per game (ranking 119th in the nation). They averaged 323.5 total yards per game (163.1 rushing, 160.4 passing) and gave up 384.8 total yards per game (162.6 rushing, 222.3 passing).

Aidan Armenta led the Warhawks with 148/253 completed passes and 1,629 total passing yards, throwing 12 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Zach Palmer-Smith led the team in rushing yards with 660, adding a team-high 4 rushing touchdowns, while JP Coulter had a team-high 21 caught passes for 234 receiving yards. Defensively, Noah Flemmings led the team with 80 total tackles (40 solo), while D’Arco Perkins-Mcallister led Louisiana-Monroe in sacks with 4.0.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Trends: Week 1

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win

• Louisiana-Monroe has lost each of its last 18 games against opponents from the Southeastern Conference.
• Mississippi State has won each of its last nine season openers.
• Louisiana-Monroe has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six road openers.
• Mississippi State has covered the spread in each of its last five games in September.
• Mississippi State has won the first quarter in 32 of its last 37 games against non-conference opponents at Davis Wade Stadium.
• Louisiana-Monroe has lost the first half in 31 of its last 33 road games against non-conference opponents.

Why the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks will win

• Louisiana-Monroe has won each of its last three September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Mississippi State has lost eight of its last nine games.
• Louisiana-Monroe has covered the spread in each of its last five September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games.
• Mississippi State has lost the first half in seven of its last eight games.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of Mississippi State’s last nine games against non-AP-ranked teams at Davis Wade Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
• Seven of Louisiana-Monroe’s last eight season openers have gone UNDER the total points line.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts

• Ethan Pulliam ranked 7th amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (46.8) last season.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Player Prop Facts

• Nic Trujillo led Louisiana-Monroe for receiving touchdowns (4) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Mississippi State have had given up the largest 3rd quarter led to win a game last season – 17 points vs Texas.
• Mississippi State ranked 132nd among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game last season (10.2).
• Louisiana-Monroe ranked 135th among FBS teams for red zone percentage last season (64.3).
• Louisiana-Monroe ranked 133rd among FBS teams for Q2 points per game last season (3.5).

Louisiana-Monroe vs Mississippi State Prediction

In this Louisiana-Monroe vs Mississippi State Prediction, Mississippi State is coming as -28.5 home favorites. Mississippi State was the better team last season, as they had a better overall record and were 8-5 against the spread. They were better both offensively and defensively, as Louisiana-Monroe was almost a bottom-120 team in both categories with a -15.3 point differential and was just 4-8 against the spread. Mississippi State is projected as a top-70 team this season, while Louisiana-Monroe is projected as a bottom-8. I will take Mississippi State and lay the -28.5 points at home in this one.