New Mexico State Aggies (1-1) vs. Hawai'i Warriors (0-2)
September 12, 2026 11:59 pm EDT
The Line: Hawai'i Warriors -7 / New Mexico State Aggies 7; Over/Under: 50.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article we will formulate a Hawaii vs New Mexico State prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 12th at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, Hawaii. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 2 matchup.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Betting Preview
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are 0-2 this season after they lost to UNLV by a score of 21-6 in week one. Hawaii trailed 14-3 at halftime and only managed three points in the second half in the tough loss. The Rainbow Warriors were out gained by a total of 364-294, went 9-20 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Micah Alejado threw for 176 yards and one interception, while DeVon Rice caught four passes for 27 yards. Rice also rushed 15 times for 73 yards in the loss.
Prior to that game, Hawaii lost to Stanford by a score of 37-27 in week zero. Hawaii trailed 23-7 in the fourth quarter, but they came back to lead 27-23 with four minutes left, before allowing the last 14 points for the loss. The Rainbow Warriors were out gained by a total of 483-322, went 8-19 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Micah Alejado threw for 272 yards and two touchdowns, while Kainoa Carvalho had five receptions for 72 yards. DeVon Rice rushed 11 times for 35 yards and one score in the game.
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview
The New Mexico State Aggies are 1-1 this year after they defeated Mercyhurst by a score of 51-14 last week. New Mexico State led 23-14 at halftime and they shutout their opponent in the second half in the easy win. The Aggies out gained Mercyhurst by a total of 530-237, went 7-13 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-0 in the game. Trey Hedden threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns, while TK King caught three passes for 94 yards. James Jones rushed 19 times for 137 yards and one score in the win.
Prior to that game, New Mexico State lost to Florida State by a score of 34-17 in week zero. New Mexico State cut the deficit to just 10 points in the fourth quarter, but couldn’t find anymore points in the loss. The Aggies were out gained by a total of 419-319, went 10-17 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at one in the game. Trey Hedden threw for 272 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while TK King had seven catches for 78 yards and one score. James Jones led the ground game with 11 carries for 28 yards in the loss.
Why the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors will win
- Hawaii has won each of its last 19 September games as a favorite.
- New Mexico State has lost 13 of its last 14 road games in September.
- The favorite has covered the spread in each of Hawaii’s last five games.
- New Mexico State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against opponents from the Mountain West Conference.
- Hawaii has won the first half in seven of its last eight games as a home favorite.
- The home team has won the first quarter in four of New Mexico State’s last five games.
Why the New Mexico State Aggies will win
- New Mexico State has covered the spread in each of its last four games as an underdog.
- Hawaii has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games against opponents from the Conference USA.
- Hawaii has lost the first half in four of its last five games.
Total Points Facts
- Six of Hawaii’s last seven home games in September have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of New Mexico State’s last six games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 2, Micah Alejado ranks 7th amongst FBS players for passing yards (448) this season.
New Mexico State Aggies Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 2, Trey Hedden has recorded the longest passing touchdown in a single game this season (83 yards vs Mercyhurst Lakers, Week 1).
Matchup/League Facts
- Hawaii ranks T1st among FBS teams for sacks this season (7.0).
- Hawaii ranks T6th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (39).
- New Mexico State ranks T4th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (3).
- New Mexico State ranks T8th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (38).
Hawaii vs New Mexico State Prediction
Hawaii comes into this matchup looking for their first win of the season, but their defense has looked pretty rough through two games. The Rainbow Warriors only scored six points last week at home and they couldn’t stop making crucial mistakes. New Mexico State battled FSU hard in week zero and blew the doors off of a FCS team last week. I don’t like what I have seen from Hawaii so far, but I also know they are much better than they have shown. Take Hawaii to cover here.
