Baylor Bears (3-1) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (2-1)
October 3, 2026 10:30 pm EDT
The Line: Arizona State Sun Devils -4.5 / Baylor Bears 4.5; Over/Under: 49.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Baylor Bears and Arizona State Sun Devils meet Saturday in week 5 college football action at Mountain America Stadium. Here’s an Arizona State vs. Baylor Prediction. This article will include an Arizona State vs. Baylor Pick.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
The Baylor Bears beat Colorado and LA Tech and play TCU next. Baylor has lost 6 of its last 10 games. Nate Bennett is completing 75 percent of his passes for 567 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Gavin Freeman and Jayden McGowan have combined for 557 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, while Louis Brown IV has 9 receptions.
The Baylor Bears’ ground game is averaging 150.8 yards per contest, and Dawson Pendergrass leads the way with 287 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, Baylor is allowing 13 points and 306 yards per game. Travion Barnes leads the Baylor Bears with 27 tackles, Bo Onu has 3 sacks, and Devon Jordan has 2 interceptions.
Arizona State Sun Devils Betting Preview
The Arizona State Sun Devils lost to Texas A&M, beat Kansas, and they play Hawaii next. Arizona State has won 5 of its last 8 games. Cutter Boley is completing 63.1 percent of his passes for 736 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Reed Harris and Omarion Miller have combined for 523 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, while Grayson Rigdon has 2 receptions.
The Arizona State Sun Devils ground game is averaging 165.7 yards per contest, and Kyson Brown leads the way with 227 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, Arizona State is allowing 24 points and 285.7 yards per game. Owen Long leads the Arizona State Sun Devils with 24 tackles, Jalen Thompson has 1 sack, and Lyrik Rawls has 1 interception.
Why the Arizona State Sun Devils will win
- The favorite has won each of Arizona State’s last seven games.
- Baylor has lost each of its last three road games against conference opponents.
- Baylor has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four road games against conference opponents.
- The favorite has covered the spread in five of Arizona State’s last six games.
- Arizona State has won the first half in each of its last five games against conference opponents.
Why the Baylor Bears will win
- Baylor has won three of its last four October games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Arizona State has lost each of its last three October games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Arizona State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five home games against conference opponents.
- Baylor has covered the spread in three of its last four games.
- Baylor has won the first half in four of its last five October road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Baylor has won the first quarter in five of its last six October games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Baylor’s last six October games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of Arizona State’s last four home games against teams from Texas have gone UNDER the total points line.
Arizona State Sun Devils Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Reed Harris ranks T8th amongst FBS players for receiving touchdowns (5) this season.
Baylor Bears Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Gavin Freeman ranks T1st amongst FBS players for receptions (35) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Arizona State ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
- Arizona State ranks 137th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (-9.0).
- Baylor has recorded the most home wins by a margin of 10+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
- Baylor ranks T4th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (0.8).
Arizona State vs Baylor Prediction
Arizona State has been more impressive with the tougher schedule, and it’s at home while having a week to prepare. The public has moved this line quite a bit since the opener, but it still doesn’t feel like enough. Baylor still has issues finishing drives offensively, and its secondary can be hit or miss. This is also the first true road game for Baylor, and Tempe is an underrated place for visitors. I’ll take Arizona State by a touchdown, as it’s the sharper team across the board and is coming off a key bye week.
