Wisconsin vs Michigan State Prediction Football Picks Today 10/3/26

The Michigan State Spartans and Wisconsin Badgers meet Saturday in week 5 college football action at Camp Randall Stadium. Here’s a Wisconsin vs. Michigan State Prediction. This article will include a Wisconsin vs. Michigan State Pick.

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

The Michigan State Spartans lost to Notre Dame and Nebraska, and play Illinois next. The Michigan State Spartans have won 3 of their last 5 games. Alessio Milivojevic is completing 67 percent of his passes for 748 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Rodney Bullard Jr. and Jayden Savoury have combined for 346 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Chrishon McCray has 15 receptions.

The Michigan State Spartans’ ground game is averaging 122.8 yards per contest, and Cam Edwards leads the way with 304 yards and 3 touchdowns. Defensively, Michigan State is allowing 21.3 points and 314 yards per game. Devin Vaught leads the Michigan State Spartans with 26 tackles, Eli Coenen has 3 sacks, and Kenny Soares Jr. has 1 interception.

Wisconsin Badgers Betting Preview

The Wisconsin Badgers beat Penn State and Eastern Michigan, and they play UCLA next. Wisconsin hasn’t won 4 straight games since the 2021 season. Colton Joseph is completing 58.5 percent of his passes for 987 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Tyrell Henry and Jacob Harris have combined for 510 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, while Chris Brooks Jr. has 10 receptions.

The Wisconsin Badgers’ ground game is averaging 134.3 yards per contest, and Abu Sama III leads the way with 190 yards and 1 touchdown. On defense, Wisconsin allows 20 points and 275.3 yards per game. Cooper Catalano leads the Wisconsin Badgers with 35 tackles, Sebastian Cheeks has 2.5 sacks, and Matthew Jung has 1 interception.

Why the Wisconsin Badgers will win

• Michigan State has lost each of its last 10 road games.
• The favorite has won each of Michigan State’s last 10 games.
• Wisconsin has covered the spread in five of its last six games against conference opponents.
• The favorite has won the first quarter in each of Michigan State’s last six games.
• Michigan State has lost the first half in each of its last 12 games as an underdog.

Why the Michigan State Spartans will win

• Wisconsin has lost each of its last five games in October.
• The underdog has won three of the last four games between Michigan State and Wisconsin.
• Michigan State has covered the spread in each of its last six road games.
• Wisconsin has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three home games in October.
• Wisconsin has lost the first half in 11 of its last 12 games against conference opponents.
• Michigan State has won the first quarter in four of its last five October games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Wisconsin’s last eight home games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Michigan State’s last five games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

Wisconsin Badgers Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Gavin Lahm ranks T5th amongst FBS players for made field goals (8) this season.

Michigan State Spartans Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Liam Boyd ranks T5th amongst FBS players for made field goals (8) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Wisconsin ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
• Wisconsin ranks 22nd among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (163.8).
• Michigan State ranks T4th among FBS teams for sacks this season (15.0).
• Michigan State ranks 8th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (85.7).

Wisconsin vs Michigan State Prediction

I’m not thrilled about Michigan State and its lack of offensive firepower. There’s a world where Wisconsin bullies Sparty and cruises to victory. However, Wisconsin doesn’t impress me much either, and this is a letdown spot after somehow coming back and shocking Penn State. Wisconsin defends and has an underrated passing game, but it struggles to run the ball, and that could be an issue against a disciplined MSU defense.

Michigan State has covered 8 of its last 10 games, and the underdog has also covered 8 of the last 10 meetings between these Big Ten programs. We’re getting a hook on top of a key number. Give me Michigan State and the points.