Ohio State Buckeyes (3-1) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (4-0)
October 3, 2026 3:30 pm EDT
The Line: Iowa Hawkeyes 14.5 / Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5; Over/Under: 45.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Ohio State Buckeyes and Iowa Hawkeyes meet Saturday in week 5 college football action at Kinnick Stadium. Here’s an Iowa vs. Ohio State Prediction. This article will include an Iowa vs. Ohio State Pick.
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview
The Ohio State Buckeyes beat Kent State and Illinois, and they play Maryland next. The Ohio State Buckeyes have won 15 of their last 18 games. Julian Sayin is completing 72.2 percent of his passes for 1,206 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jeremiah Smith and Devin McCuin have combined for 782 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns, while Brandon Inniss has 8 receptions.
The Ohio State Buckeyes’ ground game is averaging 156.8 yards per contest, and Bo Jackson leads the way with 283 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Ohio State is allowing 12.3 points and 274.3 yards per game. Earl Little Jr. leads the Ohio State Buckeyes with 23 tackles, Kenyatta Jackson Jr. has 2 sacks, and Jaylen McClain has 1 interception.
Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview
The Iowa Hawkeyes beat Northern Iowa and Michigan, and they play Washington next. The Iowa Hawkeyes look for their first 5-0 start since the 2021 season. Hank Brown is completing 68 percent of his passes for 700 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Tony Diaz and Reece Vander Zee have combined for 390 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, while DJ Vonnahme has 10 receptions.
The Iowa Hawkeyes’ ground game is averaging 215.5 yards per contest, and Kamari Moulton leads the way with 284 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Iowa is allowing 8 points and 239.8 yards per game. Cam Buffington leads the Iowa Hawkeyes with 38 tackles, Joseph Anderson has 2 sacks, and Deshaun Lee has 2 interceptions.
Why the Iowa Hawkeyes will win
- Iowa has won each of its last seven games.
- Ohio State has lost each of its last three games against AP-ranked teams.
- Iowa has covered the spread in each of its last five games as an underdog.
- The team ranked 5th in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
- Iowa has won the first half in eight of its last nine games as an AP-ranked team at Kinnick Stadium.
- Iowa has won the first quarter in four of its last five home games as an AP-ranked team.
Why the Ohio State Buckeyes will win
- Ohio State has won 22 of its last 23 games in October.
- Iowa has lost seven of its last eight October games against AP-ranked teams.
- Iowa has failed to cover the spread in each of its last eight October games against AP-ranked teams.
- Ohio State has covered the spread in each of its last four road games as a top-5 AP-ranked team against an AP-ranked team.
- Ohio State has won the first half in each of its last 12 games against conference opponents.
- Ohio State has won the first quarter in each of its last 11 road games in October.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Iowa’s last nine games as an underdog in Iowa have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of Ohio State’s last six road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Iowa Hawkeyes Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Hank Brown ranks 11th amongst qualified players for sack percentage (2.0%) this season.
Ohio State Buckeyes Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Jeremiah Smith ranks 1st amongst FBS players for receiving yards (617) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Iowa ranks 1st among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (8.0).
- Iowa has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team this season (2).
- Ohio State has recorded the most home wins by a margin of 10+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
- Ohio State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 15+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
Iowa vs Ohio State Prediction
Ohio State has the talent and athleticism to blow by Iowa, but we’re getting a hook on top of a key number. If this was under 14 points, I’d consider OSU, but at 14.5 points I’ll lean Iowa. The Hawkeyes can still be hit or miss offensively and didn’t look good against Michigan, but that defense is still elite, and Ohio State did have issues getting separation against Texas. Iowa can do similar things defensively and grind this game down in ugly fashion.
Kinnick Stadium also remains one of the tougher venues in the sport, and that crowd will be ready with College GameDay in the building. At this number, I want the points with Iowa.
