Colts vs Commanders Prediction 10/4/26 NFL Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Colts vs Commanders Prediction for this NFL Week 4 game on Sunday, October 4^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Washington Commanders Preview

The Washington Commanders have a 1-2 record this season are sitting on the 3rd place of the NFC East. They are coming off a 33-31 home win against the Seahawks and will face the Giants, the 49ers and the Eagles next.

Offensively, the Commanders average 25 points per game, ranking 13th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 30.7 points per game, which is 31st. Washington averages 314 total yards per game (182 passing and 132 rushing), while allowing 362.3 total yards per game (82 rushing and 280.3 passing).

Marcus Mariota leads the Commanders with 294 passing yards with 63.8% completed passes and four touchdowns. Jacory Croskey-Merritt leads the team in rushing yards with 142, while Terry McLaurin has 10 receptions for a team-high 141 receiving yards. Defensively, Jeremy Reaves has a team-high 19 total tackles (12 of them solo).

Indianapolis Colts Preview

The Indianapolis Colts have a 1-2 record this season are sitting on the 2nd place of the AFC South. They are coming off a 19-17 home win against the Texans and will face the Steelers, the Titans and the Vikings next.

Offensively, the Colts average 24 points per game, ranking 15th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 30.3 points per game, which is 29th. Indianapolis averages 293.3 total yards per game (190 passing and 103.3 rushing), while allowing 417.3 total yards per game (141.3 rushing and 276 passing).

Daniel Jones leads the Colts with 611 passing yards with 66.3% completed passes and three touchdowns. Jonathan Taylor leads the team in rushing yards with 258, while Josh Downs has 14 receptions for a team-high 186 receiving yards. Defensively, Akeem Davis-Gaither has a team-high 29 total tackles (15 of them solo), while DeForest Buckner leads the team in sacks, with 3.

Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Washington Commanders will win

• The Colts have lost each of their last six games without DeForest Buckner.
• The Commanders have won each of their last two games as underdogs without Dyami Brown.
• The Commanders have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against AFC South opponents.
• The Colts have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four October games against NFC opponents.
• The Colts have lost the first quarter in each of their last two games as favorites.
• The Colts have lost the first half in each of their last four games as favorites.
• The Commanders have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five games against AFC South opponents.

Why the Indianapolis Colts will win

• The Commanders have lost each of their last six games following a win.
• The Colts have won each of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games without Terry McLaurin.
• The Colts have covered the spread in five of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Colts have won the first half in six of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Colts have scored the first touchdown in 17 of their last 18 games.
• The Commanders have lost the first quarter in eight of their last nine games following a win.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Commanders’ last seven games without Deatrich Wise Jr. have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of the Colts’ last five games as favorites without Andrew Ogletree have gone OVER the total points line.

Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts

• Austin Ekeler has scored two or more touchdowns in three of his last four appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Austin Ekeler has scored the last touchdown in three of his last four Week 4 appearances.
• Terry McLaurin has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four appearances with the Commanders as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Marcus Mariota has recorded 20+ completions in each of the Commanders’ last three games against AFC opponents.
• Marcus Mariota has recorded 232+ passing yards in three of his last four October appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Stefon Diggs has recorded 47+ receiving yards in each of his 11 previous Week 4 appearances.
• Marcus Mariota has recorded 28+ rushing yards in seven of his last eight October appearances.
• Stefon Diggs has recorded 46+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his 11 previous Week 4 appearances.
• Stefon Diggs has recorded the equal-most drops (4) of any player this season.

Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Facts

• Daniel Jones has scored at least one touchdown in five of his last six appearances with his team as a favorite against NFC opponents.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 23+ completions in six of his seven previous Week 4 appearances.
• Darius Slayton has recorded 49+ receiving yards in five of his last six appearances with Daniel Jones as the starting quarterback.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 272+ passing yards in three of the Colts’ last four games following a win.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 12+ rushing yards in each of his 12 previous appearances with his team as a favorite against NFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 4, DeForest Buckner ranks T2nd in the league for fumbles recovered (1) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 4, the Commanders rank T1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage (100.0%) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Commanders rank T1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage against (0.0%) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Colts rank 32nd in the NFL in yards allowed per game (417.3) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Colts rank 32nd in the NFL in H1 opponent points per game (18.3) this season.

Colts vs Commanders Prediction

In this Colts vs Commanders Prediction, the Colts are coming as -3.5 road favorites. Both teams have identical overall and ATS records this season and both have been struggling defensively, sitting on the bottom-5 of the NFL in points allowed, with 61 combined. As a result, they are 5-1 to the over in their 6 games combined this season and three of their five head-to-head meetings have also gone over the total. Both teams are also above the league average offensively, averaging 49 ppg combined, which is also higher than today’s total of 47.5. Take the over in this one.