Florida State Seminoles (3-3) vs. Miami (FL) Hurricanes (5-0)
October 17, 2026 7:00 pm EDT
The Line: Miami (FL) Hurricanes -21.5 / Florida State Seminoles 21.5; Over/Under: 56.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Florida State Seminoles and Miami Hurricanes meet Saturday in week 7 college football action at Hard Rock Stadium. Here’s a Miami vs. Florida State Prediction. This article will include a Miami vs. Florida State Pick.
Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview
The Florida State Seminoles beat Virginia, lost to Louisville, and they play Clemson next. Florida State has split its last 6 games. Ashton Daniels is completing 59.5 percent of his passes for 1,320 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Jayvan Boggs and Duce Robinson have combined for 593 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, while Micahi Danzy has 19 receptions.
The Florida State Seminoles ground game is averaging 187.2 yards per contest, and Ousmane Kromah leads the way with 565 yards and 5 touchdowns. Defensively, Florida State is allowing 25.3 points and 410.2 yards per game. CJ Rochard Jr. leads the Florida State Seminoles with 38 tackles, Rylan Kennedy has 5 sacks, and Quindarrius Jones has 1 interception.
Miami Hurricanes Betting Preview
The Miami Hurricanes beat Clemson and Central Michigan, and they play Pittsburgh next. The Miami Hurricanes have won 15 of their last 17 regular season games. Darian Mensah is completing 84.2 percent of his passes for 1,438 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Malachi Toney and Cooper Barkate have combined for 845 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, while Elija Lofton has 12 receptions.
The Miami Hurricanes’ ground game is averaging 220.4 yards per contest, and Mark Fletcher Jr. leads the way with 307 yards and 5 touchdowns. Defensively, Miami is allowing 9.8 points and 249.6 yards per game. Omar Thornton leads the Miami Hurricanes with 21 tackles, Marquise Lightfoot has 5 sacks, and Ethan O’Connor has 1 interception.
Why the Miami Hurricanes will win
- Miami (FL) has won each of its last nine games against teams from Florida.
- Florida State has lost each of its last eight games as a road underdog.
- Miami (FL) has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games.
- Florida State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight road games.
- Miami (FL) has won the first quarter in each of its last nine games against teams from Florida.
- Miami (FL) has won the first half in each of its last 11 games as a favorite.
Why the Florida State Seminoles will win
- Florida State has won three of its last four games in Florida.
- Miami (FL) has failed to cover the spread in 14 of its last 15 October games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- The road team has covered the spread in each of the last four games between Florida State and Miami (FL).
- Florida State has won the first quarter in three of its last four games.
- Florida State has won the first half in nine of its last 12 games in Florida.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of Florida State’s last eight games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the last five games between Florida State and Miami (FL) has gone UNDER the total points line.
Miami Hurricanes Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 7, Darian Mensah ranks 1st amongst qualified players for passer rating (212.2) this season.
Florida State Seminoles Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 7, Ashton Daniels ranks T3rd amongst FBS players for rushing touchdowns (10) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Miami (FL) ranks 1st among FBS teams for points per game this season (49.6).
- Miami (FL) ranks 1st among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (9.8).
- Florida State has given up the largest 1st quarter lead to win a game this season – 14 points vs Louisville.
- Florida State ranks T6th among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (95.8).
Miami vs Florida State Prediction
Miami has the offensive firepower to put Florida State in the dirt, but this is a rivalry game where the underdog has covered five of the last eight meetings. We’re getting a hook on top of a key number, and the Noles have competed despite the losses and bad defensive play. Also, Miami hasn’t really been tested up to this point, so who knows how it will look in possibly its biggest game of the season so far. There will be some tension in the stadium with fans from both sides. I’m going to lean toward the points in this spot.
