LSU vs Mississippi State Prediction Football Picks Today 10/17/26

The Mississippi State Bulldogs and LSU Tigers meet Saturday in week 7 college football action at Tiger Stadium. Here’s a LSU vs. Mississippi State Prediction. This article will include a LSU vs. Mississippi State Pick.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview

The Mississippi State Bulldogs beat Missouri, lost to Alabama, and they play Oklahoma next. Mississippi State has split its last 10 games. Kamario Taylor is completing 66.2 percent of his passes for 1,450 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Anthony Evans III and Sanfrisco Magee have combined for 833 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, while Marquis Johnson has 13 receptions.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs’ ground game is averaging 177.8 yards per contest, and Fluff Bothwell leads the way with 403 yards and 3 touchdowns. On defense, Mississippi State allows 28 points and 379.6 yards per game. Tyler Lockhart leads the Mississippi State Bulldogs with 31 tackles, Will Whitson has 2 sacks, and Jalen Smith has 1 interception.

LSU Tigers Betting Preview

The LSU Tigers beat McNeese, lost to Kentucky, and they play Auburn next. LSU has split its last 4 games. Sam Leavitt is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 1,496 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Jackson Harris and Winston Watkins Jr. have combined for 787 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, while Trey’Dez Green has 14 receptions.

The LSU Tigers’ ground game is averaging 213.7 yards per contest, and Dillin Jones leads the way with 482 yards and 5 touchdowns. Defensively, LSU is allowing 18.5 points and 250.7 yards per game. TJ Dottery leads the LSU Tigers with 40 tackles, Princewill Umanmielen has 8 sacks, and Tamarcus Cooley has 2 interceptions.

Why the LSU Tigers will win

• Mississippi State has lost each of its last eight games in October.
• LSU has won each of its last 15 games as a home favorite.
• The team ranked 16th in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in each of its last eight games.
• LSU has covered the spread in eight of its last nine home games against teams from Mississippi.
• LSU has won the first half in each of its last 13 games at Tiger Stadium.
• The team ranked 22nd in the AP Poll has won the first quarter in eight of its last nine games.

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win

• Mississippi State has won three of its last four games as a road underdog.
• LSU has lost four of its last six games as a favorite against AP-ranked teams.
• LSU has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games in October.
• Mississippi State has covered the spread in five of its last six road games against AP-ranked teams.
• LSU has lost the first half in seven of its last eight games against teams from Mississippi.
• The road team has won the first quarter in each of the last five games between Mississippi State and LSU.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of Mississippi State’s last eight road games against AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of LSU’s last four games against AP-ranked teams has gone UNDER the total points line.

LSU Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 7, Princewill Umanmielen ranks 2nd amongst FBS players for sacks (8.0) this season.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts

• Kamario Taylor has thrown three or more touchdown passes in five consecutive games- the longest streak in the FBS.

Matchup/League Facts

• LSU has recorded the most home wins by a margin of 10+ points of any FBS team this season (4).
• LSU has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 15+ points of any FBS team this season (4).
• Mississippi State ranks T3rd among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (83.3).
• Mississippi State ranks T128th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (9.0).

LSU vs Mississippi State Prediction

This is a bounce-back spot for LSU after a bizarre loss to Kentucky, and coming back home should help. However, this is a lot of points for an LSU team that’s been turnover-prone offensively and can be hit or miss defensively against good quarterbacks. Mississippi State has a star at the QB position, and if he finds a rhythm, the Bulldogs can hang around. I’ll take my chances with the points, as this is too much respect for an LSU team that already has two bad losses.